Whirligig 4: Summer 2008 climate report

Another installment of my occasional Weather Whirligig series. The idea here is to highlight reports of unusual and/or extreme or weather and climate events. Inclusion here is not meant by me to imply a cause-and-effect relationship with climate change. Rather, they are merely data points for future consideration...

It's the depth of (boreal) summer and it's hot.

• The warmest day ever in Reykjavik was recorded on Wednesday[30 July] when the mercury reached 25.7 degrees Celsius...Northern Europe is currently enjoying unusually warm temperatures, with Stockholm in Sweden hovering around 30 degrees Celsius for the past week.

• A major national park in Canada's Arctic has been largely closed after record high temperatures caused flooding that washed away hiking trails and forced the evacuation of tourists...The combination of floods, melting permafrost and erosion means that the southern part of the park will remain shut until geologists can examine the damage...

• CIMSS Satellite Blog notes 03 August 2008 marked the 22nd consecutive day of daily high temperatures of 90º F or higher at Denver, Colorado. The old record was 18 consecutive days, set back in 1874 and 1901. The post also illustrates an example of the effects of land use/cover on temperatures and the local climate.

Drought is often another feature of summer. As this example from Ethiopia shows, the timing of the rain is as equally important as the amount.

The green highlands of West Badawacho in south-west Ethiopia are not a place where you would expect to find hunger. The land is fertile and lush...[However,] the lushness of the land masks a near total crop failure across the district...[T]he poor harvests of 2007 and the repeated failure of the crucial March-May rains have spelled disaster.

In recent weeks the rain has arrived but it is too late. While the countryside is transformed into a sea of green, 50% of farmland lies uncultivated. So many livestock died in the recent drought that farmers are struggling to plant maize by hand. For those who have managed to get a crop down, it won't be harvested until September, and then production is expected to be low.

And with heat and drought comes wildfire...

• High levels of fire activity have continued to plague northern California. The Telegraph fire -- near Yosemite National Park -- has burnt ~34 000 acres and is 60% contained. 22 homes have burnt and 33 firefighters have been injured battling the blaze. Suppression costs have run to $24m.

• A wildfire in Turkey (Antalya province) has been burning for five days. One person has died and another is missing... It has also killed livestock and destroyed 60 houses, a school, a mosque, and dozens of farm buildings...4 000 ha of woodland has been burnt.

• Burning season has begun on the island of Sumatra in Indonesia. This deliberate burning for agricultural land clearance is producing a worsening haze that has cut visibility in the busy Malacca strait to below 5 km. Officials fear the number of hot spots could exceed last year's record as the current dry season will be marked by less rain than usual (an impact of the nascent Indian Ocean Dipole, perhaps?).

Finally, there is this from Texas, rarely content to be second-best* at anything: Texas plagued by heat, drought, water parasite, wildfire. Sadly, three have died during the current heat wave, which looks set to continue for the foresee-able future...

The 'good news' of the season is that the polar ice cap isn't going to completely melt away this summer (but it is getting thinner). Not as low as last year, but likely 2nd or 3rd lowest.

Are these events a harbinger of climate instability or merely 'normal' weather? What has to happen to answer this question? to change minds? to act?

*They've had to learn to accept that Alaska thing...

July 2008 wildfire

As the Northern Hemisphere moves deeper into summer, wildfire activity continues in many regions there.

Southeastern Russia continues to see significant wildfire activity. NASA's Earth Observatory Natural Hazards noted the smoke from these fires affecting Japan about a week ago. This global composite hotspot map, from 18-28 June 2008, indicates that those outbreaks were were part of a broader area of fire throughout the southeast of the country.

The MODIS real-time imagery for 8 July (right) suggests that many of those continue to burn today, indeed they are quite widespread. This is 4km resolution image covering roughly a 1000 x 1000 km area. The image is a real-time image, so there is some distortion on the edges. (I cut most of this off). 'Enhancing' the image brought out some apparent (but still faint) lat-lon lines; I'm guessing 60N, with longitude lines of 130 and 140 E. North is off center about 10-20 degrees to the right (follow the long lines). That is also reasonably compatible with the other estimate.

Fires across southern Russia have been burning on and off since at least April. This is evidenced by the image of Lake Baikal used in this post shows significant wildfire activity in May. A casual glance through the archived fire maps (from the NASA site above) of the same two 10-day periods each year suggests that fire activity occurs in the region every year. This year seemed a bit more active, especially during April than previous years, and continues a string of apparently active years (2006 and 2007 also)

The current image shows a large smoke plume with some of these fires. The smoke has been notable and widespread in many of these cases. The CIMSS Satellite Blog backtracked some suspicious haze of the northwestern US to a southeastern Russia source.

California is currently undergoing an unprecedented bout of wildfire activity. Over 1000 fires started in a massive lightning storm in late-June. Many fires have been raging uncontained for several weeks, with many smaller fires merging into 'complexes' in many locales. While lightning-ignited fires are not terribly uncommon in the mountains of CA, the sheer number of fires lit in this one event has not been noted previously. In the wildfire post from April some very early fire activity in Big Sur was noted with some sense of foreboding.

A nice image showing the fires California was captured on 6 July. The largest fire is the so-called Basin fire, which has burnt roughly 30 000 ha to date. The situation remains critical, with the fire only ~20% contained. Some gains on the fires around the state have been made, but a heatwave looms over the next few days.

The fires are also affecting on the extremely-endangered California Condor. Under threat are the newly-hatched chicks. Considerable effort has been made to insure their safety, with a helicopter rescue of some eight chicks. The fate of several other breeding pairs remains uncertain.

Other fires have been noted in the northern reaches of Canada, but nothing particularly out of the ordinary has occurred (from perusing some of the info here). The linked image shows some dramatic smoke plume. Real-time imagery from MODIS indicates that there were still fires burning this general area on 8 July. A forest fire in Turkey that killed two people was also reported on EONH. The accompanying image shows a thick smoke plume extending into the Mediterranean and affecting Cyprus.

Are these fires a result of a changing climate? Or perhaps it's just a 'bad year'? Events in California are certainly alarming; large fire events have become increasingly common since 2000. They are no longer an anomaly, but a new ecological reality. Similarly, the apparent increase in fire activity in the Russian forests could reflect some shift in the local climate -- perhaps associated with the large reductions in Arctic ice observed recently and/or the possible melting of the Siberian permafrost. This permafrost/forest ecosystems represents a tremendous carbon storage, the loss of which would likely create considerable climate havoc. Regardless of whatever relationship these or other wildfires may or may not have with global warming, the fact remains that wildfires are an undeniable ecological force. Careful management of wildfire will prove to be an essential tool for both adaptation and mitigation of climate change.

Scandinavia ablaze

The Scandinavian countries of Norway and Sweden are experiencing some significant wildfire activity this season, particularly during June.

Earlier this month in Sweden:

Eight helicopters and some 150 firefighters, home guards and other volunteers were Tuesday combating a large blaze that has raged for several days in central Sweden, reports said. The blaze near Hassela, some 350 kilometres north of Stockholm, was one of two blazes in the region...

A week later:

Gusting winds are fueling forest fires raging near Lämmetorp outside of Finspång in east central Sweden...

Dry ground and hard winds on Tuesday caused a number of other forest fires...in south central Sweden....

[T]he fires which have been raging for twelve days outside of Hassela in northern Sweden are now under control.

Even more recently in Norway:

Norway may seek foreign help to extinguish its biggest forest fire since World War Two, which has been raging for five days...

The fire has burned out about 5,000 acres, or 2,000 hectares, near the town of Arendal, about 260 km (160 miles) southwest of Oslo.

Norwegian media reported smoke had wafted as far as Denmark, some 120 km (75 miles) away across the Skagerrak strait.

The fire broke out after an unusually warm and sunny start to June. No lives have been lost but holiday houses have been destroyed and dozens of people evacuated.

The image was captured from the real time imagery from the NASA MODIS Terra satellite on 11 June 2008 and shows the Arendal fire. A small cluster of hotspots can be seen, along with the smoke plume extending towards Denmark. The image is a true colour image roughly 270 x 170 km, with north pointing about 20-25 degrees to the left. Oslo, Norway's capital, is just off-image to the left of the 'N' in NASA. I have slightly tweaked the image to attenuate the 'murkiness' of the original.

Compared to the sizes of wildfires which occurring the United States and other regions of the world, these fires are relatively small. But they are obviously straining the the resources of the local firefighting agencies. The largest fire since WW2 is something to take seriously.

These fires, along with those seen in Russia during April, raise an interesting question in light of a recently published paper suggesting that melting Arctic ice has a warming impact several hundreds of km inland, as well. As suggested over at Hot Topic, this is consistent with the pattern of temperatures observed this past winter with the record ice melt. These unusually warm temperatures likely played a role in producing the enhanced fire weather conditions driving the current fires. Are the carbon reservoirs within circumboreal forests at risk through increasing fire activity from the melting polar ice (as well as from the potential of melting permafrost)?

The last few years in Alaska and Yukon have seen some very severe fire seasons (e.g. Here and here). A paleo-climate record of fire activity in these regions [PDF] is more unclear. The fire activity noted this year, in both Scandinavia and Russia, could also be a sign. Obviously, one data point doesn't prove anything one way or the other. The Scandinavian fires could just be the result of short-term weather fluctuations. It will be interesting to see what happens in other northern areas this year as well. Wildfire activity is expected to be above normal this summer [PDF] in much of northern North America. The impacts of any fires need to be carefully monitored as well.

Is this case overstated? Quite possibly. Wildfire probably won't kill the forest by itself, but it could weaken the ecosystem enough to allow something else to do the job. Possibly another one of the myriad of unexpected impacts of humanity's reckless CO2-enhancement experiment. It's all happening now, and humans will know where we stand in a few years time. We can only hope it is not too late.

April 2008 wildfire

April has been particularly active for wildfires around the globe. Many of these fires started as agricultural fires which subsequently escaped control.

Particularly hard hit have been southern Russia and northeast China. As of the 23^rd, over 500 wildfires have erupted in three regions of Russia. As shown in the image, smoke plumes from these fires have traveled hundreds of kilometers, extending over the Pacific Ocean. Earlier this month, fires raged in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of China. These have since been controlled/extinguished.

The Global Drought Monitor suggests that these regions have been undergoing a medium-term drought, exacerbating the fire danger. The unusually heavy snowfalls reported earlier this year in China have damaged a tenth of the nations forests, increasing fuel loads and ramping up fire danger.

The Argentinian capital, Buenos Aires has been 'smoked out' as a result of large pasture clearing fires. More pasture than normal is being cleared for additional soybean production, as farmers seek to capitalize on high commodity prices. A state of emergency was declared, a result of the reduced visibility from the smoke. Some 70 000 hectares have been burnt.

Widespread fire activity was also noted in SE Asia, near the Burma/India border and extending into Laos, Thailand and southern China. Most of these fires are agricultural in nature, but typically some escape into natural areas.

In the United States, a large 9 000+ acre (~4000 ha) fire burned near Fort Carson, CO. The fire took more than a week, and the aid of a snowstorm, to contain. A tanker pilot lost his life while battling the blaze. A wildfire near Big Sur, CA was also noted. While not especially large or damaging, the fire is notable for its timing; this region doesn't usually see fires until mid-summer.

The upcoming fire season in the north is off with a bang, with trends suggesting that the summer could see a repeat of the high levels of fire activity noted last year. Indeed, as global warming increases, increased wildfire activity is likely to be a consequence. However, we cannot unequivocally say these fires are a direct result of climate change at this time.

***

Image: Earth Observatory Natural Hazards

Weather whirligig 3

Another spin on the Weather Whirligig. This is an occasional series where the idea here is to note extreme or unusual weather events that occur globally. As usual, inclusion here is not meant to imply some sort of direct cause-and-effect with climate change. Individual weather events cannot be attributed to climate change.

Europe has seen some unusual weather during February. The UK saw periods of icy cold interspersed with near-record high temperatures. Many spring flowers there bloomed early, only to be thwarted by the cold. Further south in Greece, Athens received a rare 10-15 cm of snow resulting in school closures and transport disruption. A strong windstorm -- so-called Hurricane Emma – roared through central Europe in early March, killing 9 people. This wasn't a tropical cyclone, rather a deep mid-latitude cyclone (<970 hPa).

Madagascar was affected by a tropical cyclone (Ivan). At least 60 have been a killed as a result of the storm. From the story (my emphasis)

Ivan, one of the biggest cyclones ever to hit Madagascar, was packing winds that topped 125 mph (200 kph) when it swept onto the giant Indian Ocean island's east coast early last week.

In a particularly strange event, torrential rain and floods have left 16 dead in Peru. This has apparently been ongoing since January. Here is the strange part:

The La Nina weather phenomenon, characterized by cooler than normal sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, has been blamed for exacerbating rainy seasons in the Andes region this year.

This is nearly unprecedented. Rainy weather over South America is expected during the El Nino phase. La Nina brings cooler than normal sea temperatures to the Eastern Pacific. Something unexpected is certainly going on. Ocean temperatures have only recently returned to normal in the region as the La Nina begins to decay

Finally, several anomalous wildfires have been noted around the globe.

• From the Firefighter Blog, an early start to the fire season has been noted in Oklahoma and Texas. In Texas, the fires may have reached 500 000 acres in size.

• In Africa, about a third of one of Kenya's most popular wildlife parks have been ravaged in a multi-day fire event. The fire was started accidentally. Much of the wildlife has been spared. [more photos here]
  

• A wildfire also destroyed 7400 acres of forest in the Patagonia region of Argentina. 1000-year old trees in a nearby national park were not threatened. The fire was initially started by arsonists, but was driven by strong winds combined with unusually hot, dry weather conditions.

***

Image: Spiegel Online International

Global Wildfire 2007: A sign of climate change?

In the previous post in this series, I discussed wildfire activity observed around the globe in 2007. It was an extremely active fire year , and nearly 100 lives were lost around the world. This post will continue the series, focusing on two related questions: Is wildfire activity increasing? and Is this related to climate change?

There are many telling trends here. Data from the National Interagency Fire Center show generally fewer numbers of fires but more area burnt, particularly since 2000. Many of the events noted in the previous post were unprecedented, including the tundra fires in Alaska, the Greek fires and the California wildfires. The Western US has seen fires of similar magnitude several times over the past few years. The Victorian Alps earlier this year burnt areas which experienced a similarly large wildfire in 2003. These so-called mega-fires are becoming increasingly common, despite the ever-increasing amount of money and resources devoted to wildfire suppression.

Despite these apparent trends, the honest answer to the questions above must be “We don't know”. Large, devastating wildfires have also been seen in the past. The available data records are short and/or sparse; a lot of work remains to be done on cleaning up and filling in gaps in the data. Whatever data there are is also confounded by human activity. Using simple metrics like area burnt or the number of fires can also be misleading, as fire management practices have changed over the years. Our detection and surveillance of fires is much more efficient than in the past, especially in remote regions of the world. Still, there are many reasons to think that they are increasing and that climate change is to blame.

Analogous to the classic Fire Triangle, three interacting factors all have to be present for a wildfire to occur. First, suitable atmospheric conditions, given by the weather and/or climate must be present. Second, adequate fuel amounts and types must be available for combustion. Finally, ignition must occur. If one of these is missing, then a wildfire cannot occur. All of these factors are subject to change with global warming. Indeed, the changes are already being seen.

Most obvious are direct changes in the weather and climate. Temperatures are increasing and droughts are becoming more frequent. Both of these have a direct impact of fire weather. Indeed, research has shown that in SE Australia an upward trend in fire weather has been observed, especially since 2001 or so. Additionally, factors such as the changing of the seasonal timing (e.g. spring starting earlier) are a direct result of global warming affecting atmospheric conditions and hence wildfire.

Changes in fuel conditions are also expected with enhanced CO2 and climate change. Enhanced CO2 acts to fertilize plants, potentially making more fuel available for burning. Further, changes in the types of fuels are likely to result, with shrubs and other woody plants replacing grasslands in many parts of the world as a result of increasing CO2. This could change the frequency and intensity of fire in a given location (even decreasing it...). Invasive weeds and plants can also move, driven by climate change, and alter the fire regime of a place.

Global warming is also driving changes in fuel through other more subtle means. Pine beetles are infesting trees in Canada, killing trees and making them available for burning. The less-intense winter observed in recent years has failed control the population of the beetles, resulting in more widespread infestations. Similar infestations have been reported in the northwestern United States.

Climate change skeptics often claim that the apparent increase in wildfires is solely due to fuel management practices -- not enough prescriptive fire to prevent fuel from building to dangerous levels. But if atmospheric conditions are not conducive to burning, then no wildfire will occur. The weather and climate also act to grow the fuel, prepare it for combustion and spread the flames once started. The recent fires in southern California suggest otherwise; many of the regions burnt this year burnt just 4 years ago.

Lightning is a natural source of ignition for wildfires, especially when it occurs in thunderstorms with low precipitation. It is not known how global warming will affect such storms, but with more widespread drought conditions, it seems reasonable to think that more such storms could be a possibility. Unfortunately, a large fraction of wildfire ignitions are arson related (about 50% in Australia) or have other human causes. But this should not be taken as an excuse or a special category of fires. Humans have always caused fires. For countless generations before European contact in Australia the Aborigines were lighting fires, helping shape the landscape into its current fire-conducive state. The same is true of other indigenous cultures as well. Humans are part of the natural environment and we ignore this at our own peril.

Wildfire activity is predicted to increases as a result of climate change. Indeed, the available evidence suggests that we are already seeing some of that increase, but we cannot answer the question with an unequivocal 'Yes' at this point in time. Nonetheless, society needs to begin considering the possibility and prepare for the effects. Even should the current observed levels of activity not be climate change-driven (unlikely!), the fire activity of recent years provides a good archetype for the types of disasters we can expect. Management strategies will have to be adjusted and considered beforehand. As will be discussed in the next part of the series, wildfires have many more implications than simply 'stuff burning down'. Planning and forethought will be needed to overcome the most deleterious effects.

***

Image: Canberra Bushfire 2003 from BBC News

Global wildfire 2007

Wildfires are an issue in many places around the world, and the past year has seen a continuation of the apparent trend towards larger, more intense fires. Worldwide, wildfire activity was quite pronounced during the past year. This post will highlight some of the major fires observed during the past year or so from around the globe. For sake of brevity, this won't be a complete discussion; I won't note agricultural burning which is more prevalent than wildfire. For a more thorough listing, see the EO Natural Hazards Fire Archive (with excellent imagery), a main source of information for this post. The discussion will be arranged more-or-less chronologically. There will be some bias towards Australia and North America; the nature of the media and the fire coverage makes this a necessity.

Late 2006 and early 2007 saw many fires. This is the peak of the fire season in southern portions of Australia. The past fire season was among the most intense on record, at least in terms of fire weather, part of a jump which has been seen since approximately 2001. Fires in the eastern Victorian Alps in Australia burned out over 1 million hectares beginning in early December and extending well into January. Other major fires in Australia were noted near Dwellingup, Western Australia (which was razed by bushfire in 1961...) and in Tasmania. Fire activity in southeast Australia continued into April.

As austral winter begin, fire activity in the north began to heat up. The Sweat Farm Road fire in Georgia (USA) grew rapidly in April. Other major fires were reported in Georgia and Florida at the end of May, a result of the extreme (and ongoing!) drought in those areas. May also saw a large wildfire in northern Minnesota.

As boreal summer progressed, fire activity progressed northward into the wildlands of the Far North of North America. In June, Quebec reported more than 4.5 times the 20-year average area burnt had already occurred, suggesting an unusually severe fire season. The spruce forests in Alaska were also ablaze in June. In July, the tundra on the North Slope of Alaska was ignited by a lightning strike. This fire burned until October; at 100 000+ hectares burnt, it was the largest tundra fire on record in the state. Fires in Manitoba forced the evacuation of hundreds of residents.

In the western regions of the continental US, the summer saw numerous large wildfires. Utah reported its largest fire on record at 363 000 acres. Idaho and eastern Oregon also saw numerous fires ignited by dry lightning, several which burned in excess of 100 000 acres. Over 2007, Idaho saw nearly 2 million acres burnt by wildfire. Fires from Idaho also extended into Nevada. Large fires in Idaho and Montana burnt well into September.

California is one of the more fire prone regions of the world and it saw several so-called mega-fires during late-summer. Some of these were the Moonlight fire (63 000+ acres) in northern CA and the Zaca (200 000+ acres) fire in southern CA. The most-widely reported fires of the year occurred throughout southern CA in late-October, forcing the evacuation of over half a million people in the state. The image above is from these fires, captured by the NASA MODIS instrumentation.

Other regions of the globe also saw significant wildfire activity. Much of southern Europe experienced an unprecedented heatwave, which was accompanied by widespread wildfires in Italy and other regions of SE Europe, including Croatia where 11 firefighters were killed battling the blazes. Large fires in the Canary Islands forced thousands of evacuations. Perhaps most tragic, more than 60 people were killed in extensive wildfires in Greece in late-August, many of which were deliberately lit.

South Africa experienced extreme wildfire activity in eastern portions of the nation, resulting in the loss of several lives, while simultaneously undergoing floods on the opposite side. In Algeria, several people were killed in scores of forest fires in the Atlas Mountains. In Paraguay (South America) over 1700 fires were started in September, resulting in 400 000 hectares of forest burnt. Following the fires, widespread hunger was seen as the blazes had destroyed much of the season's crops. 50 000 people were left homeless and 8 people were killed.

In Australia, the 2007 fire season has been particularly active until recently, with numerous large fires observed. Much of western Kimberley (in Western Australia) burnt, with fires persisting for several months. Unusual fire activity was also observed in central Northern Territory and in regions south of the Gulf of Carpentaria. While widespread, the fires had little economic impact, burning in sparsely populated areas. In December, wildfires on Kangaroo Island in South Australia and in the Goldfields region of Western Australia have resulted in the loss of life. For updates on the bushfire situation in Australia, see the Australia Bushfire Monitor.

The impact of wildfires over past year has been large, resulting in numerous lives lost and significant amounts of property damaged. Fire activity is seemingly on the increase. And the losses aren't just economic, but everything from air quality to biodiversity is damaged in these events. Several questions arise: Is this level of fire activity unusual? What is the impact of climate change? These questions will be addressed in part 2. The myriad impacts of fires, which are more far-reaching than the active portion of the fires themselves will be discussed in part 3. These will be posted in the next week or two.

Indonesia: Microcosm of climate change

The UNFCCC Conference on Climate Change is taking place in Bali, Indonesia until 14 December. This international meeting is the opening stages of negotiations for a comprehensive treaty on the adaptation to and mitigation of climate change. In many ways, the location is ideal. While the meeting is happening in Bali, a resort island, Indonesia as a whole represents a world in miniature for climate change. A wide range of the expected impacts of climate change are already beginning to be observed there.

Indonesia is an archipelago, with over 17 500 islands (6000+ inhabited) and a predominantly Muslim population of over 230 million. The country has seen its share of internal political strife, with several separatist movements in the last decade. It has also faced economic turmoil, particularly hit by the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Straddling a major thrust fault, the nation is also subject to strong earthquakes and significant volcanic activity (source: CIA World Factbook). More to the point of this blog, there are many environmental issues of concern in Indonesia.

As an archipelago, the nation has an intimate relation with the sea. There are numerous coral reefs in the country. These have been long damaged by blast fishing and pollution, but now warming of the oceans associated with climate change is resulting in large-scale bleaching of the reefs. If unchecked, these could disappear within decades. Rising sea-levels are also a threat, with the possible disappearance of many small islands. Jakarta's airport could be flooded with sea water by 2035, and the Presidential Palace, 10 km inland could be flooded by 2080.

Indonesia also faces a threat to its food stocks. More erratic weather patterns have been observed over the past few years, making it increasingly difficult for farmers to successfully maintain crop yields. Indonesia lost 300 000 tons of crop production every year between 1992 and 2000, three times higher than the previous decade. Fish stocks are also dwindling, likely due to overfishing. Increasingly erratic climate variability associated with climate change suggests that these trends are likely to continue in the future.

Indonesia's extensive tropical forests are also in danger. Land clearing, particularly of the peatlands, can result in an enormous CO2 source. Much of the forest is being deliberately burned off to make room for palm oil plantations to make allegedly 'green' bio-fuels. At other times, the erratic climate results in widespread drought over the region, which dries out the forest an creates conditions suitable for massive wildfires. Conditions during the 1997-8 El Nino resulted in a particularly dramatic fire season here. Should such conditions become more frequent the resulting emissions of CO2 and destruction of forest could be devastating. Indonesia has made a proposal for wealthier nations to pay to avoid deforestation. It reeks of blackmail, but it may have to be adopted to avoid even worse consequences.

Climate-change-affected disease is also on the increase in the nation. This year has seen a particularly virulent strain of dengue fever become widespread. Whereas previously, fatalities from the disease mostly occurred among children, now 20% of the fatalities are adults. This is out of the realm of past experience. There have also been an unusually high number of cases of dengue in SE Asia in the past year.

This is not meant to single Indonesia out for particular blame. These problems, and many variants thereof, are occurring worldwide even as the negotiations ensue. Rather, this is a call to the delegates who are negotiating our future in Bali: Consider the impacts on the local environment of the conference. Take a look at what is happening around you. Do not underestimate the impact that climate change can and will have on our future. Of course, it is not just climate change but a whole host of environmental issues, like overfishing and deforestation, that need to be considered in the negotiations. Overpopulation and peak oil also should not be neglected. The basic framework for the future of our species and our planet is being decided at this meeting.

To use a sporting analogy, it's late in the second half and we are a few goals down. We can give up; we are sure to lose that way. Or we can keep playing like there is no tomorrow (because there isn't...). It is time to put aside our differences and play together as a team. Let's win one in spite of what the Gipper (and his ilk) have done to put us so far behind.

Bushfires and climate change in SE Australia

A bit of self-promotion...

The Climate Institute of Australia today released a report entitled “Bushfire Weather in Southeast Australia: Recent trends and projected climate change impacts”. I am proud to say that I am the lead author on the report. I will briefly summarize the results.

The basic idea of the study was 1.) to evaluate the potential changes to weather conducive to bushfires in 2020 and 2050 using two CSIRO climate models made for the IPCC 4^th Assessment, and 2.) compare these changes predicted by the model to what has been observed to evaluate how well the model is doing.

The first part was fairly straightforward, and follows on from a similar study we did a couple of years ago using the IPCC 3^rd Assessment. The results were also similar. Broadly speaking, we found a 10-30% increase in fire danger across southeast Australia (NSW, VIC, TAS,ACT, SA and southern QLD) for the worse case scenarios by 2050. This was accompanied by a doubling of high-risk 'extreme' days, where wildfires are generally uncontrollable. We also looked at some of the extreme upper ranges, where much of the house loss and other types of damage occur, finding a similar increase.

Pretty scary stuff, but wait for the other shoe to drop...

Looking at the observations revealed that over the past 5 fire seasons in southeast Australia, we have consistently exceeded the fire danger predictions the model made for 2050. In other words, we are already there! The 2006-7 fire season was, by many measures, the worse fire weather we have experienced in our records at many of the stations. The 2002-3 season was also quite bad (Canberra bushfires), but unlike previous times, there hasn't really been much of a break between these two extreme seasons, which is unprecedented. Our records are limited. For example, the few long time series we were able to gather only extend back to the 1940s, and so fail to encompass some historically bad events like the 1939 Black Friday bushfires in Victoria. There are, as always, a few issues with the data, but we have done our best to work around those and we openly acknowledge what and where the problems exist.

Now, of course we cannot absolutely attribute all of that change to climate change, and we were very careful in the report not to do so. We cannot rule out interdecadal variability, for example. We did detect apparent 20-year cycles in the weather data, and we are currently in an upswing (apparently) in recent years. But, the peaks we are seeing now are higher than those in the past. We hypothesized that what we are seeing is some combination of climate change and interdecadal variability. The test of our hypothesis comes in the next 5-10 years of observations. If natural variability is playing a large role, the we will see a decline in the upcoming years, with a retreat towards conditions more like the 2020 model projections. If we don't see this decrease, the conclusion must be that the climate models are too conservative in this instance, and we are underestimating the impacts of climate change.

This last point is akin to the recent situation with the polar ice caps, wherein the melting is proceeding at a much faster pace than what was previously predicted. We don't have a complete understanding of the climate system (nor does anyone claim we do) and the models may be wrong. Unfortunately, not wrong in our favor. It all points to the fact that the time to act on mitigation of and adaptation to climate change is now (which is the point the Climate Institute is making with our report).

With this report, we have hit the major media outlets in Australia. We were the lead story on the 7:30 Report, a national news magazine. Transcripts and videos here (your humble blog author is featured in these interviews). I saw the report this evening, and I feel they did a pretty good job of reflecting the uncertainties and not exaggerating too much. We have also stories in most of the major newspapers in Australia. Will try to update with links to a few of these stories in the near future...

For those interested in the progress of this year's bushfire season in Australia, I encourage you to visit my other blog, the Australia Bushfire Monitor. There, I keep tabs on the major bushfire developments and events as they occur throughout the country.

Greek fires: A sign of global warming?

This post from Jennifer Marohasy's blog, a well known lair of Deniers, doubters and head-in-the-sand types, doubts that recent Greek fires (and by extension, one supposes, all of the unprecedented fire activity in southern Europe this summer) are at least partly due to global warming. The idea is completely dismissed, with no evidence provided. Instead, we are to believe the fire is solely due to human factors, namely

• Changes in land use because 'rural people' who regularly burn-off no longer control the land (increasing fuel load)

• Transfer of responsibility for bushfire away from land managers to fire agencies and their 'suppression mentality' (increasing fuel load)

• An over-reliance on technology like fire-fighting aircraft

While I have no doubt that these factors play some role in producing this disaster, this analysis ignores the primary factor required to produce wildfires of this size and intensity. That factor is the WEATHER AND CLIMATE. Does the fuel load play a role? Of course it does. Humans are also responsible in that most of the fires were likely human-lit (though probably not by terrorists or the mafia...). But none of those would matter if the weather conditions were not set up to produce such a fire. That this oversight comes from a a bushfire specialist in WA is all the more disappointing. He should know better.

The fact is that the weather, especially the heat, in southern Europe this summer has not been observed for at least several human lifetimes. All time record highs were observed in Greece earlier this summer (46 C at one point). While temperatures were not that high during the time of the last fires, they were still in the upper 30s and low 40s at the time of fire, more than enough to produce an 'extreme' fire danger rating (in the Australian vernacular).

Is this 'proof' of global warming? No, but it is consistent with the expected effects predicted by the theory. Namely, more heat waves and drought, resulting in an increase in wildfire. Exactly what has been observed. Consider this quote from Climate Progress (albeit it was given in a different context, but still relevant)

Yes, it could all be a grand coincidence or the result of inadequate data — but as a scientist I apply Occam’s Razor. We have data that matches our theory. The simplest explanation is that the theory is right.

Certainly the impact of the fires could have been reduced. The author of the original post makes valid points. Allowing fuel loads to build to such high levels through misguided environmentalism and/or inappropriate management of the land is foolish, and contributed to the disaster. But even with a lower fuel load (and regardless of the ignition source), the fires very well may have been uncontrollable given the meteorological situation and the resource and technology issue above would still be irrelevant.

The issues the author raises are important. But the Earth's changing climate cannot be ruled out as a factor in the devastation caused by these fires. Greece will be a long time recovering from this disaster. Humanity needs to use this as a learning experience to adapt to the changing climate.

Greek fires

This summer, Europe has been experiencing unusual weather, to say the least. Extreme heat, drought and unusual fire activity have all been observed. Now comes a weekend of extreme fire, with at least 62 reported dead over the course of the last three days.

Over 170 fires have been burning, overwhelming apparently unprepared fire authorities. Numerous countries, including Australia, are sending aid and volunteers to assist.

The Christian Science Monitor asks the question “Why is Greece on fire?”:

This has been one of the hottest and driest summers in recent history, and much of southern Europe has been plagued by forest fires. In Greece, the dry conditions have played a role. But many of the fires, government and forestry experts say, have been set by arsonists, hoping to clear land for development.

Some reports (see FireFighter Blog) have suggested that the fires are an act of terrorism. I acknowledge the possibility, but find this unlikely. I suspect that this is part of that paranoid thinking that always comes out after events like this. It never pans out, the story just always kinds of fades away...Did people start these fires? Most likely. I don't think it was 'terrorists', though. More likely accidental starts or some lonely pyromaniac-type out trying to impress his imaginary girlfriend...

"Most of the reasons concern changing of land use – from forest to something else [such as] construction, or building, or to grazing, or agriculture," explains Nikos Georgiadis, head forest officer for the Greek office of WWF (the World Wildlife Fund). "But the response from the government has not been effective at all."

...

Greece has one of the worst records in the European Union on environmental issues, and on forest protection in particular. Environmental groups say recycling is in its infancy, development is largely unregulated, and protected areas neglected.

Regardless of arson and/or land use change, the fires are in no small part down to the particular
weather and climate that has been observed over their summer. Without an appropriate climate 'setup', fires of this magnitude could not occur.

2006 was a climatically unusual year. 2007 is turning out to be even more unusual. Still, single events like this do not constitute 'proof' of global warming. Believe that if you will, but the global nature of the extremes this season suggests that things have changed. Even if you choose not to accept that, this year is certainly a good model year to take as the example for what climate change will be like.

Welcome to the future.

The wave of the future

A study was published in JGR Atmospheres this week entitled “Doubled length of western European summer heat waves since 1880”. While I haven't read the paper, there have been several 'popular science'-type stories which give many of the salient details. For example (also, here and here):

• European Heat Waves Double In Length Since 1880 -- ScienceDaily

The most accurate measures of European daily temperatures ever indicate that the length of heat waves on the continent has doubled and the frequency of extremely hot days has nearly tripled in the past century. The new data shows that many previous assessments of daily summer temperature change underestimated heat wave events in western Europe by approximately 30 percent.

From a science perspective, an important point is that these data have been homogenized, that is, they have had the artificial trends and discontinuities associated with observational practices, instrumentation changes and such identified and corrected, giving a more accurate estimate of the longer-term behaviour of the time series.

I would suspect that these findings reinforce the notion that the heat over SE Europe can be regarded as an impact of climate change. The map, from IRI at Columbia University, shows temperature anomalies over the past three months (May, June and July) over Europe. Anomalies of 2C are seen across much of southern Europe, from Italy to points east. Peak anomalies of over 3 C were observed in Romania.

The impacts have been enormous. Here are a few with representative links:

• Hundreds of people have perished from the heat, with over 500 in Hungary alone.

• Agricultural losses are expected to range from 30-50% of the crop.

• Wildfires have ravaged across much of the region. Total areas burnt are already equivalent to the amount burnt last year.

• Many regions are also facing water shortages.

If we act now, reduce our emissions and move towards a sustainable lifestyle and economy, then this is our future. If not, things will likely get worse, with more heat waves, droughts, floods and fires. It's our choice.

Welcome to our new reality

Just a bit of weather news from this week...

• Floods, heat hit Europe, but is it global warming? -- Reuters

In its second heatwave this summer temperatures in Greece soared to 45 degrees Celsius (113 Fahrenheit) this week, following an earlier heatwave in June which set a new 110-year record of 46C.

Record temperatures this month have caused up to 500 deaths in Hungary, put 19,000 Romanians in hospital and triggered forest fires across Bulgaria.

And Britain saw this week its worst floods in 60 years, which have left about 350,000 people without running water.

But is it global warming?

The wildfires in Europe aren't simply confined to Bulgaria...In fact, as witnessed by NASA satellites, the fires are worse further to the west. See here also.

• Fires in Southern Europe

  

And as suggested by the title, it is not simply Europe...

• Thousands homeless as Asia weather misery spreads -- Reuters

  Asia's monsoon misery has spread to Nepal, leaving thousands of people homeless, while more rain is expected to bring further chaos to China's drowned southwest, where many have already lost homes, livelihoods and loved ones.

Rescuers dropped relief supplies to hundreds of people in Indonesia's Sulawesi island on Friday after days of torrential rain triggered landslides and floods.

• Floods affect half a million in northeast India -- Reuters

Floodwaters have poured into or destroyed more than half a million homes in India's northeast in the past couple of days, officials said on Wednesday.

On the Iran-Afghanistan border, a large dust plume has been observed.

Source points for the storm appear in an area known as the Hamoun wetlands, once an oasis for people and wildlife. By the start of the twenty-first century, a combination of expanded irrigation and severe drought had sucked the region dry, and winds that had once been cooled by wetland water began blowing dust.

The western United States has also been suffering through extreme drought and numerous wildfires, with Utah experiencing it largest ever wildfire at 363 000 acres (147 000 ha). See also here and here, for example.

So what is going on here? These sorts of events, occurring simultaneously, are extremely unusual. Or is this simply a reflection of increased information awareness? Have these sorts of events always gone on simultaneously, and we have never put the pieces together until now? I find that unlikely, at least for the last 10-20 years or so. And even beyond that, people had some inkling of what was going on in the wider world.

Is it just part of the vagaries of the normal chaos of weather, as the Deniers would have us believe? The usual method of blaming it all on El Nino is not valid this time. We are currently experiencing neutral to weak La Nina conditions. Besides, ENSO has been showing its own erratic behaviour for the last 20 years or so itself.

Or is it climate change? In a statistical sense, we cannot say with absolute certainty. These events are certainly consistent with the expected impacts of climate change. But perhaps similar weather happened before we took consistent global observations. We just don't know for sure, but I have my doubts about this. There is only so far these sorts of rationalizations can take you before they become ridiculous.

Even on the off chance that these events are not related to anthropogenic climate change, they are the harbinger of things to come. We should take these events and learn from them, as a model of what to expect more frequently in the future. 2007 is on track to be the second warmest year on record. We need to start getting serious about adaptation to and mitigation of climate change if humanity is to survive and thrive. This sort of weather is soon likely to be our everyday reality.