The changing face of Australia

Weather-wise, Australia has been seeing something of a wet period recently. Normal to above-normal rains have been observed across much of the country over the past several months, with November being particularly wet. There's ongoing flooding in NW Queensland, and the normally dry Lake Eyre may partially fill this year. The NT's Red Centre has turned green. Further, the Bureau of Meteorology's annual climate summary indicates that 2008 was 'only' the 14^th warmest year on record. Does this spell the end of climate change in Australia? Is K-Rudd doing the right thing by setting such a pathetic target for reduction of CO2 emissions in this country?

This is most likely courtesy of the return of quasi-La Nina conditions in the Pacific, after a brief return to neutral Pacific conditions. A strong La Nina affected the weather during late-2007 and early-2008. Historically, La Nina often mean wet periods in Oz, and overall cooler global temperatures as well. This latter point applies to Australia as well.

Globally, the cooler weather has caused most of the contrarians to downplay the reality of climate change. Hopes and wishes are all well and good, but the power of positive thinking won't change this reality; Anthropogenic climate change is not gone, either in Australia or the rest of the world. What we are experiencing is just weather and interannual climate variability -- by definition short-term. The La Nina likely won't make it much past the end of austral summer, and El Nino will be around again soon enough, when we'll likely see new record high mean temperatures, both in Australia and around the globe. This is not the end of anthropogenic climate change.

Regardless of whether one accepts the reality of the above facts or not, the Great CO2 Enhancement Experiment (~40% and rising) we are running on the planet is dangerous -- full of unintended consequences and unforeseen peril. Warming of the mean global climate is serious, but only one of many of our worries. CO2 presents other dangers as well. Below are a few early results from experiment noted of late in Australia and its territories.

• Recent analysis of the long term patterns of coral growth on the Great Barrier Reef are telling. A 400 year record of banding like tree rings on the giant Porites coral reveals a massive decline in the growth history. Since 1990, a decline in the growth rate has been observed. Previously, the record would undulate, now the decline is consistent. Should current trends continue, the growth rate will be zero by 2050. Ocean acidification as much has rising temperatures are believed to be the culprit.

• In Kakadu National Park in the Northern Territory, a 40 year study has revealed an increases in woody vegetation on the savanna and in the floodplains of the park. Intially, the increase was hypothesized to be a result of feral buffalo (an invasive species). However, this relationship has proven to be weak as after 1985, the buffalo were nearly eliminated from the park while the vegetation structure continued to change. Instead, the researcher speculate that he change may be related to an increased level of atmospheric CO2, increasing rainfall and changing fire regimes during the study period.

• Heard Island, a sub-Antarctic island some 4000 km southwest of Western Australia is showing a rapidly changing landscape. A portion of the land has split from the mainland, effectively forming a new island. This is a result of changing sea level, possibly from rising temperatures (a 1^oC increase over past 50 years, and it's not an urban heat island!) or from other factors like strong ocean swells and winds. Further, a glacier on the island has likely retreated further and anecdotally, the lagoons at the glaciers terminus have increased in size. Analysis and monitoring are underway.

None of the Earth's 'spheres' remains untouched by Our Way of Life. Climate change and other environmental degradation affects the whole population of the Earth and every nation on its face. Australia's self image as the Lucky Country will not spare it any damage, as the above examples attest. Even without a temperature change, the Experiment has detrimental results -- ocean acidification or enhanced plant growth are but two. The effects run deep and climate change is just the obvious manifestation. And there are may well be surprises we haven;t even considered yet to come.

So yes, it is short-sided for Australia to set such a pathetic emissions reduction target. It's time to stop listening to the neoliberal economists; they are clueless and morally bankrupt. Let's lead instead of being led like sheep following the shepherds of greed. Unchecked, the whole experiment – CO2 enhancement, rampant consumerism, overpopulation -- will catch up to everyone in the end. If we act soon, we have a chance to break the bonds and begin a new way of living. If and when the inevitable crash comes, the considerations which are driving this decision now will be meaningless. The businesses will be gone and the economy will be toast. The world is not ours to exploit to the point of exhaustion. We have a moral obligation --to our fellow denizens of biosphere (human or otherwise), both now and into the future -- to leave the world in the state we inherited it. They are our legacy and our immortality, the standards by which we will be judged.

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Image: Bureau of Meteorology

The refutation of nonsense

Unfortunately for future generations, the idea that “global warming stopped in 1998” seems to be gaining credence in the popular imagination. The claim is that the 'global warming hoax [has been] exposed by record global cold'. These are dangerous thoughts that need to be vigorously countered with proper data analysis which accounts for the physical behaviour of the climate system.

The claims are nonsense that is at odds with what the data show. The indicators are clear –- anthropogenic climate change is a reality which isn't going away, no matter how much we may wish it to be so.

Consider the image which shows a time series of the NASA GISS annual globally-averaged temperature anomalies. Where is the lack of warming since 1998? I just don't see it. The general trend is generally ever-upward, as it has been since the mid-1970s. It is true that this year is expected to be cooler than the previous few years. It's part of the interannual variability. The recent past has been characterized by a cold Pacific ocean associated with a strong La Nina event. January and February were quite cool over parts of the globe, with unusual snow amounts and occurrences reported in some regions. But northern Eurasia experienced well above normal temperatures during these two months, and the data for March indicate that most land areas are now running well above normal. The La Nina is rapidly breaking down, and neutral conditions are returning to the Pacific.

That said, other 1-2 year periods of 'global cooling' are easily visible in the data. When the next El Nino comes -- perhaps as early as 2009-- we will likely return to record-high global mean temperatures. It's only a matter of time. Excluding the data north of about 60 N will also give an apparent 'leveling off' of temperatures and the 'no warming since 1998' idea gets 'validated'...but what exactly is that supposed to tell you? If global temperature is desired, the whole globe needs to be considered...

The apparent recovery of sea ice in the Arctic is also being used to cast doubt on the reality of climate change. After reaching record low extents in September 2007, the ice area has 'recovered', apparently providing proof of the 'hoax'. Time series plots (at left) of Arctic sea ice anomaly from Cryosphere Today, show this to indeed be the case. The ice has recovered all the way to the areas (also anomalously low) seen in 2005. Wow! The ice came back during the long polar night. Before we start making grand pronouncements about the non-validity of climate change, can we at least wait and see what happens this year (and preferably a few more after that...)? The long polar summer has just begun. Ice extent won't reach a minimum again until September. It's also true that Antarctic sea ice has been anomalously high. But there is no reason to expect a symmetric response between the hemispheres. Paleo-climate studies indicate that quite clearly.

Make no mistake, humans are affecting the climate system. The link between increasing CO2 concentrations (35% and rising!) and enhanced greenhouse warming is undeniable. It is foolhardy to do so, and this is tantamount to what climate change deniers are doing. Exactly what the effects are going to be remains uncertain, but the early indications (as detailed here on planet doom?) are not positive. Acting now to prevent the (likely) worse effects to come is crucial; when The Cataclysm occurs, it may well be too late. The source of our environmental problems is our lifestyle and the society we have created. We have reached the limits to growth; the neoliberal philosophy is bankrupt. It's time to pay the piper. Techno-solutions will ease the way, but ultimately a lifestyle change will be required to create a lasting solution.

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Images: NASA GISTEMP and Cryosphere Today, links above

Dissonant spheres

The 'spheres' of our planet have long acted harmoniously, brilliantly improvising off the others' riffs to produce a beautiful soundscape – the ecosystem we currently inhabit. The song started slowly and took a long time to reach it's present state, each new instrument gradually incorporated into the greater whole. The newest members sit in with the band are modern humans. Unfortunately, we play our instruments poorly and we have a tin ear. We are creating dissonance.

In many ways, the ocean (hydrosphere) can be considered the rhythm section, a solid foundation on which to base a composition. Water is essential to all life as we know it. This sphere is slow to act, but difficult to stop once it begins. The raucous caterwauling of humans is beginning to be noticed. A recent study shows that only 4% of the oceans remained undamaged by human activity. The oceans are becoming rapidly transformed through increasing temperature and acidity of seawater. There is some concern that we may have already triggered an ocean circulation collapse. Plastic rubbish covers vast stretches of the Pacific Ocean, detritus from our way of life.

The atmosphere is deeply influenced by the ocean (although the influence really goes both ways...). The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major factor in determining the weather. We are currently observing the peak of the La Nina phase of the cycle, wherein cooler-than-normal sea surface conditions prevail across much of the Pacific Ocean. This has broken an extended drought across eastern Australia, while simultaneously bringing 'the worst drought in decades' to Chile. The relations have been seen historically. The role of La Nina as opposed to general climate change in producing the unusual winter weather in China and the US is uncertain, and despite the claims of these articles cannot be determined right now; the data just aren't there. It is certainly possible, but more expected during the warm El Nino phase.

The biosphere –- living things – are the main melody in this music of the spheres. Without a melody, the song (often) isn't worth listening to. Human cacophony is increasingly disrupting the main theme. Anoxic dead zones in the ocean are on the increase, a result of global warming. Warming conditions are leading the increased migration of animals. In the UK, seabirds are facing threats as snake pipefish, virtually unknown before 2002, move into the area. Warming seas around Antarctica also threaten the invasion of predators -- first crabs then sharks -- into the fragile ecosystem of the the region, threatening widespread devastation. It's not just climate change; tuna fisheries are facing a massive collapse from overfishing.

Playing a supporting role on human time scales is the lithosphere (the Earth's crust). Global warming may lead to an increase in earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Such ideas are very speculative, but do have some precedence – parts of the crust are still rebounding' from the removal of ice from the last ice age. Probably a coincidence, but Norway just recorded its strongest earthquake ever in its Arctic archipelago.

It's obvious from the above that humans are not the virtuosos we imagine ourselves to be. We continue to belt out our drunken karaoke version of “My Way” at our own peril; the band may pack up and go home. Following the sentiment of Miles Davis, It's not the notes you play, but rather the space between the notes that make the music. Listening carefully and playing appropriately are admirable qualities. Silence is a perfectly acceptable musical technique; something is always happening that makes a sound. Seeing our selves and our species as a part of nature; fitting in and living within the more-than-adequate limits provided by the ecosystem. This philosophy will go a long way towards helping humanity produce a lasting grand opus.

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Image: I. Stravinsky, L' Sacre du Printemps

Indonesia: Microcosm of climate change

The UNFCCC Conference on Climate Change is taking place in Bali, Indonesia until 14 December. This international meeting is the opening stages of negotiations for a comprehensive treaty on the adaptation to and mitigation of climate change. In many ways, the location is ideal. While the meeting is happening in Bali, a resort island, Indonesia as a whole represents a world in miniature for climate change. A wide range of the expected impacts of climate change are already beginning to be observed there.

Indonesia is an archipelago, with over 17 500 islands (6000+ inhabited) and a predominantly Muslim population of over 230 million. The country has seen its share of internal political strife, with several separatist movements in the last decade. It has also faced economic turmoil, particularly hit by the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Straddling a major thrust fault, the nation is also subject to strong earthquakes and significant volcanic activity (source: CIA World Factbook). More to the point of this blog, there are many environmental issues of concern in Indonesia.

As an archipelago, the nation has an intimate relation with the sea. There are numerous coral reefs in the country. These have been long damaged by blast fishing and pollution, but now warming of the oceans associated with climate change is resulting in large-scale bleaching of the reefs. If unchecked, these could disappear within decades. Rising sea-levels are also a threat, with the possible disappearance of many small islands. Jakarta's airport could be flooded with sea water by 2035, and the Presidential Palace, 10 km inland could be flooded by 2080.

Indonesia also faces a threat to its food stocks. More erratic weather patterns have been observed over the past few years, making it increasingly difficult for farmers to successfully maintain crop yields. Indonesia lost 300 000 tons of crop production every year between 1992 and 2000, three times higher than the previous decade. Fish stocks are also dwindling, likely due to overfishing. Increasingly erratic climate variability associated with climate change suggests that these trends are likely to continue in the future.

Indonesia's extensive tropical forests are also in danger. Land clearing, particularly of the peatlands, can result in an enormous CO2 source. Much of the forest is being deliberately burned off to make room for palm oil plantations to make allegedly 'green' bio-fuels. At other times, the erratic climate results in widespread drought over the region, which dries out the forest an creates conditions suitable for massive wildfires. Conditions during the 1997-8 El Nino resulted in a particularly dramatic fire season here. Should such conditions become more frequent the resulting emissions of CO2 and destruction of forest could be devastating. Indonesia has made a proposal for wealthier nations to pay to avoid deforestation. It reeks of blackmail, but it may have to be adopted to avoid even worse consequences.

Climate-change-affected disease is also on the increase in the nation. This year has seen a particularly virulent strain of dengue fever become widespread. Whereas previously, fatalities from the disease mostly occurred among children, now 20% of the fatalities are adults. This is out of the realm of past experience. There have also been an unusually high number of cases of dengue in SE Asia in the past year.

This is not meant to single Indonesia out for particular blame. These problems, and many variants thereof, are occurring worldwide even as the negotiations ensue. Rather, this is a call to the delegates who are negotiating our future in Bali: Consider the impacts on the local environment of the conference. Take a look at what is happening around you. Do not underestimate the impact that climate change can and will have on our future. Of course, it is not just climate change but a whole host of environmental issues, like overfishing and deforestation, that need to be considered in the negotiations. Overpopulation and peak oil also should not be neglected. The basic framework for the future of our species and our planet is being decided at this meeting.

To use a sporting analogy, it's late in the second half and we are a few goals down. We can give up; we are sure to lose that way. Or we can keep playing like there is no tomorrow (because there isn't...). It is time to put aside our differences and play together as a team. Let's win one in spite of what the Gipper (and his ilk) have done to put us so far behind.

Natural variability vs. climate change

Global changes in weather and climate are undoubtedly being observed. Are these signs of climate change, or of some other natural (interdecadal) variability? Does it have to be an either/or proposition? Here are two examples that highlight the importance of these questions.

• NASA sees Arctic Ocean circulation do an about-face – ENN

A team of NASA and university scientists has detected an ongoing reversal in Arctic Ocean circulation triggered by atmospheric circulation changes that vary on decade-long time scales. The results suggest not all the large changes seen in Arctic climate in recent years are a result of long-term trends associated with global warming.

That's the lede of the story, something to give those who think it is all natural variability (i.e. skeptics) hope. But the key words are 'not all'. The authors are not claiming that global warming is not part of the picture, regardless of changes in the Arctic Oscillation. The relationship between interdecadal variability and climate change remains unclear. In fact the changes in the AO could be related to climate change.

Further highlighting this uncertainty is a report of a talk from a climate change conference in Australia.

• El Nino patterns are unreliable, scientist warns – ABC News

...[S]cientists should reassess the use of El Nino as a forecasting tool because climate change seems to be altering the way weather processes like El Nino work.

..."The leverage that El Nino exerts on Australia is principally through its La Nina phase, principally through the flood phase of the El Nino cycle,"

Despite the on-going La Nina, much of Australia remains mired in drought, going on 11 years in some regions of the southeast. From a historical perspective, this should be a time of abundant rain in Australia. Is climate change having an impact on ENSO, or is this some heretofore unobserved pattern in its behaviour? Since the early-90s, when we began to observe unusual behaviour in ENSO, this debate has raged. The IPCC expects little change in ENSO, but there is low confidence in that projection.

We are undoubtedly doing something to our atmosphere and our planet on quite large scales. For example, observations show we have seriously altered the carbon cycle of the planet. In some areas, we have also changed the amount of insolation reaching the surface, due to smog and pollution. It seems inconceivable that such significant changes would not have some effect on the climate. With our relatively limited observations, we also know there are coherent patterns on very long time scales.

How much is due to each factor? Perhaps alterations in the patterns of interdecadal variability is how climate change manifests itself, or maybe climate change just exacerbates the natural patterns. We just don't know. We've never scientifically observed climate changes of this magnitude and scale before. So surprises in the behaviour of the climate system should be expected. After all, climate models are not without their flaws, but they are correct to the first order, and they do represent one of the best tools we have in our arsenal to help prevent a greater calamity for mankind.