Cyclone Nargis: 3 months later

While the storm itself came and went nearly three months ago, the Ayeyarwady Delta region of Myanmar continues to feel the effects of Cyclone Nargis. The storm left nearly 140 000 dead or missing, and severely affected another 2.4m more. Women and children bore the brunt of the death toll, with roughly 60% of fatalities reported as women.

Economic losses are expected to run to the $4b mark, comparable to the costs of the Boxing Day tsunami in Indonesia. An estimated 450,000 houses were destroyed and another 350,000 damaged; more than 4,000 schools decimated, and about 75 percent of local health facilities wrecked. The storm also destroyed livelihoods in the primarily agricultural and seaside area, killing livestock and sweeping away tools, seeds and fishing equipment.

The local fishing industry remains crippled, with only a fraction of small-scale fisherman having returned to work. Further, the cyclone devastated fish-processing facilities in the area, exacerbating unemployment and the conditions of Myanmar’s poor.

The damages are not only physical, but psychological as well. The survivors continue to suffer from pervasive trauma, further challenging the process of rebuilding shattered lives. Teachers are seeing first-hand the problems children face in returning to their studies. Almost half her students show signs of difficulty concentrating on their lessons. Some feel 'completely bleak'. This woman, a survivor of the storm, has quite a story:

"That night I went into labour in a small bamboo, thatched house on the banks of the Pyapon River to deliver my first child. But as the wind roared, my husband and I struggled outside only to see our home destroyed right before our very eyes.

“As the rain poured down and the water began to reach my chest, my husband lifted me on to some floating debris. As I lay there, the labour pains became so painful I began to scream. I needed help.

"Finally, among the broken pieces of wood I gave birth around six in the morning, but almost died in the process. I had lost so much blood. Both my husband and the woman who had helped me deliver thought I was gone. But a single hope kept me hanging on – that my son needed me.

"After the cyclone, I thought the worst was over. But finally I understood that the worst of our hardship – bringing our lives back to where they were – had only just begun.

Her son's name is Nargis...The rest of her story (follow the last link) is quite illustrative of the problems faced by many, a result of not only the TC itself, but exacerbated by poverty and an apathetic government response. (and general repression).

Cyclone Nargis also appears to have had a broader climate impact. Conditions continue to look favorable for the positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole this (austral) spring. Cool sea surface temperatures off Sumatra have been observed since mid-May, and remain through the most recent observations (21-27Jul; SST anomalies). The is also an absence of deep convection om the area.

The positive phase of IOD has a widespread climate impact, affecting the Southern Hemisphere storm tracks and altering rainfall patterns. In Australia, it often results in large regions of the country having a below-median rainfall totals. A continuation of drought conditions for some, perhaps.

Nargis's role in this is that, as noted in this recent paper, severe TCs in the Bay of Bengal during the April-May period often serve as the trigger for IOD events, in fact may be necessary. The first step in a complex sequence of events, a chain reaction involving the non-linear interactions of ocean, atmosphere and geography.

Building on the conclusions of this paper, should an IOD develop in 2008, it would be unprecedented in the ~100 yr observational record. A hat trick, three in a row. The event of 2007 was unusual in that it occurred during La Nina, the first time that has occurred, and also was the second observed case of two-in-a-row.

Confronted with such observations of course raises some questions...Is this a sign result of man's influence on the global climate or something extremely rare but purely natural? Climate change or natural variability? A sign of climate instability to come?

The are several lessons to be learned here. One is that seemingly singular weather events like Nargis often have very long term effects. Not just on the people directly involved, but also those subsequently affected by any further natural disasters (e.g. wildfire, drought, flood...) that may arise as a result of this initial event.

The second lesson was learned before. Our corporate masters have selected a purely reactive response (i.e. adaptation only) to climate change, nominally because it is cheaper and easier to 'implement'.(It really involves doing nothing now and just hoping for the best) In the long run, this is neither the cheaper nor the easier path, though. The impacts can be complex and extend well-beyond the immediate event, inflating both economic and environmental costs.

An ounce of prevention is better than a pound of cure. Mitigation – stopping our destructive lifestyles -- is absolutely necessary. Attempting to halt (to the degree possible) the apparently increasing climate instability, without resorting to some half-baked geo-engineering scheme, is much more prudent. While the initial costs are higher, the potential payoff in the future is much greater. And future generations are what this is about.

So as we meet the future and the consequences of Our Way of Life, let us hope that we face the challenges with the tenacity shown by the Burmese victims of Cyclone Nargis.

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Images: 1. An aerial view of Myanmar. Taken from one of the linked stories. The metadata on the pic suggests it was taken in early July. Credited to Contributor/IRIN.
2. Extracted from Global SST Anomaly for week ending 27 Jul 2008 at the BoM. Sorry for cutting off the scale. Blue is negative (cool) anomalies, red positive.

July 2008 wildfire

As the Northern Hemisphere moves deeper into summer, wildfire activity continues in many regions there.

Southeastern Russia continues to see significant wildfire activity. NASA's Earth Observatory Natural Hazards noted the smoke from these fires affecting Japan about a week ago. This global composite hotspot map, from 18-28 June 2008, indicates that those outbreaks were were part of a broader area of fire throughout the southeast of the country.

The MODIS real-time imagery for 8 July (right) suggests that many of those continue to burn today, indeed they are quite widespread. This is 4km resolution image covering roughly a 1000 x 1000 km area. The image is a real-time image, so there is some distortion on the edges. (I cut most of this off). 'Enhancing' the image brought out some apparent (but still faint) lat-lon lines; I'm guessing 60N, with longitude lines of 130 and 140 E. North is off center about 10-20 degrees to the right (follow the long lines). That is also reasonably compatible with the other estimate.

Fires across southern Russia have been burning on and off since at least April. This is evidenced by the image of Lake Baikal used in this post shows significant wildfire activity in May. A casual glance through the archived fire maps (from the NASA site above) of the same two 10-day periods each year suggests that fire activity occurs in the region every year. This year seemed a bit more active, especially during April than previous years, and continues a string of apparently active years (2006 and 2007 also)

The current image shows a large smoke plume with some of these fires. The smoke has been notable and widespread in many of these cases. The CIMSS Satellite Blog backtracked some suspicious haze of the northwestern US to a southeastern Russia source.

California is currently undergoing an unprecedented bout of wildfire activity. Over 1000 fires started in a massive lightning storm in late-June. Many fires have been raging uncontained for several weeks, with many smaller fires merging into 'complexes' in many locales. While lightning-ignited fires are not terribly uncommon in the mountains of CA, the sheer number of fires lit in this one event has not been noted previously. In the wildfire post from April some very early fire activity in Big Sur was noted with some sense of foreboding.

A nice image showing the fires California was captured on 6 July. The largest fire is the so-called Basin fire, which has burnt roughly 30 000 ha to date. The situation remains critical, with the fire only ~20% contained. Some gains on the fires around the state have been made, but a heatwave looms over the next few days.

The fires are also affecting on the extremely-endangered California Condor. Under threat are the newly-hatched chicks. Considerable effort has been made to insure their safety, with a helicopter rescue of some eight chicks. The fate of several other breeding pairs remains uncertain.

Other fires have been noted in the northern reaches of Canada, but nothing particularly out of the ordinary has occurred (from perusing some of the info here). The linked image shows some dramatic smoke plume. Real-time imagery from MODIS indicates that there were still fires burning this general area on 8 July. A forest fire in Turkey that killed two people was also reported on EONH. The accompanying image shows a thick smoke plume extending into the Mediterranean and affecting Cyprus.

Are these fires a result of a changing climate? Or perhaps it's just a 'bad year'? Events in California are certainly alarming; large fire events have become increasingly common since 2000. They are no longer an anomaly, but a new ecological reality. Similarly, the apparent increase in fire activity in the Russian forests could reflect some shift in the local climate -- perhaps associated with the large reductions in Arctic ice observed recently and/or the possible melting of the Siberian permafrost. This permafrost/forest ecosystems represents a tremendous carbon storage, the loss of which would likely create considerable climate havoc. Regardless of whatever relationship these or other wildfires may or may not have with global warming, the fact remains that wildfires are an undeniable ecological force. Careful management of wildfire will prove to be an essential tool for both adaptation and mitigation of climate change.

Gaining wisdom through adversity: Lessons of cyclone Nargis

The immediate threat from Cyclone Nargis has passed; the floodwaters have receded. To date 22 000+ 'official' deaths have been acknowledged by the military government; the death toll is likely higher, with 100 000 being a widely quoted figure. The high toll taken as a result interaction of a strong tropical cyclone and several natural and human factors. A low-lying river delta affected by widespread land clearing; the complete unpreparedness of the public, resulting from a lack of warnings to the public and the (relatively) unusual location and timing of the cyclone.

And the situation continues to worsen. To date, the government has refused international aid, allowing disease and malnutrition to take hold. While the military junta enriches itself, it fears a loss of power as anger mounts at the inept response, as has happened in the past.

While a singular event like Nargis cannot be explicitly attributed to climate change, there are lessons to be learned about our future life as the Great CO2 Enhancement Experiment (35% and rising!) continues to evolve. There will be no stopping the experiment. The delayers and doubters have won the socio-political battle, at least for now. Until the Cataclysm little more than token efforts toward climate mitigation will be made (on a global basis...)

What do the impacts of Nargis mean for adaptation to future climate change, since that is to be our path? I think it means we have a long way to go towards that goal. Given this performance, large parts of the world -- like Myanmar – are woefully under-prepared for current weather and climate, much less any more frequent and/or extreme future climate scenarios. The fact that this happened in the Global South under a highly repressive regime is of little consequence; you could make the same argument for New Orleans and Katrina, as well.

Adaptation is going to be more difficult and expensive than currently imagined. While it may seemingly be the only politically feasible thing now, it isn't the best path. The world-at-large is not ready for theses sorts of disastrous events now. Continued warming likely brings ever-worsening storms. The human desire to live by the sea (at high population densities) adds to the cost of these storms -- more people affected, more damage done. These pressures will only increase in the future. Increased amounts of disease, hunger and endemic poverty a possible result.

While some adaptation is required (because we're already committed to some change over the next 50 years or so), mitigation is a far better option. Better to avoid the risks, if at all possible. Both answers require a massive societal change in the end; changing now with a bright green lifestyle now gives us a chance to avoid some of the more drastic effects. Doing nothing almost guarantees a bad result.

The resistance to mitigation come from our leaders –- bankers, lawyers, businessmen – inappropriately insist on absolute certitude when dealing with the future. The future is nothing put a set of ever changing probabilities, nothing is certain until the moment is past. The probabilities are myriad. Instead of waiting for certitude, a risk management based approach of climate change should be taken, where risk is the likelihood of something happening times the consequences of that action. Such an analysis (triple bottom line) would undoubtedly indicate the wisdom a in doing what we can today to try to prevent tragic events like Cyclone Nargis from occurring more frequently.

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Image: TRMM satellite estimates of total rainfall and cyclone intensity from Nargis. EO Natural Hazards

Myanmar flooding from cyclone Nargis

Cyclone Nargis struck Myanmar (Burma) on 2 May 2008. Current NASA MODIS imagery and news reports indicate that this cyclone is an emerging humanitarian disaster.

From an informative Terra Daily news item:

At least 351 people were killed and nearly 100,000 left homeless when tropical cyclone Nargis tore through Myanmar, razing thousands of buildings and knocking out power lines, state media said Sunday.

The meteorological stats of the storm, as gleaned from the news item above...

Nargis made landfall late Friday around the mouth of the Ayeyawaddy (Irrawaddy) river, about 220 kilometres (137 miles) southwest of Yangon, before hitting the country's economic hub...

Electricity supplies and telecommunications in Yangon have been cut since late Friday night as the storm bore down from the Bay of Bengal, packing winds of 190-240 kilometres (120-150 miles) per hour.

These stats put it at the borderline Cat-3/Cat-4, suggesting a storm surge of ~4 m.

The image is a before-and-after comparison of the Ayeyawaddy province of Myanmar.Spatial dimensions of the images are 400x225 km. Yangon (nee Rangoon) is towards the upper right corner. The picture is a false-color image, comprised of visible and short-IR channels. Water appears black here; sediments in the water are dark blue (see here for description). The top panel is from 26 April; the bottom from 5 May, three days after the storm. Judging from the imagery, the area is largely low-lying river delta.

With the aid of this satellite image with the track superimposed, the storm presumably came ashore in the lower left of the image, near the large river. Comparison of the two images suggest the storm surge has been quite extensive. A swath of water is apparent across the peninsula (the storm track, perhaps?). Extended regions of the delta system are underwater –- new islands have formed off the new coastline, albeit temporarily.

The water over the former land is a deep blue hue, suggesting lots of erosion and silt transport out to sea.

Careful examination (and guesswork on the navigation!) indicate that the flood waters are very close to Yangon, as well. This is consistent with this statement (from the above news article): “There are also fears that the poorer outlying areas of Yangon, with their flimsy houses, might have been hard hit.”

An as-I-write post at The Intersection is indicating that up to 10 000 may be dead, and the normally reclusive government is appealing for international aid. These rare appeals, supported by the remote sensing data, would suggest that indeed they were hard hit.

Addendum: From Dr Jeff Masters' WunderBlog:

The storm hit the coast of Myanmar Friday night as borderline Category 3/Category 4 cyclone, with winds of 130-135 mph. After passing over the low-lying and densely populated Irrawaddy River delta region, Nargis made a direct hit on the capital city of Rangoon (Yangon), as a Category 1 storm with top winds of 80 mph...

However, it was the storm surge, not the winds, that was the big killer in Nargis. The storm tracked over the low-lying Irrawaddy River delta region, which is highly vulnerable to storm surge deaths due to its low elevation, dense population, and limited hurricane awareness of the people. I could find no records of a major tropical cyclone ever making a direct hit on the Irrawaddy River delta.

Again, as suggested by the imagery.

Addendum 2: Here is the official NASA Natural Hazards version of the picture above. They use a different 'before' picture, and their fancy image processing software and GIS make their image a bit crisper. Here is a MODIS true-color image of the cyclone at landfall.

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Image: compiled by me, from raw material collected at NASA MODIS Rapid Response

April 2008 wildfire

April has been particularly active for wildfires around the globe. Many of these fires started as agricultural fires which subsequently escaped control.

Particularly hard hit have been southern Russia and northeast China. As of the 23^rd, over 500 wildfires have erupted in three regions of Russia. As shown in the image, smoke plumes from these fires have traveled hundreds of kilometers, extending over the Pacific Ocean. Earlier this month, fires raged in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of China. These have since been controlled/extinguished.

The Global Drought Monitor suggests that these regions have been undergoing a medium-term drought, exacerbating the fire danger. The unusually heavy snowfalls reported earlier this year in China have damaged a tenth of the nations forests, increasing fuel loads and ramping up fire danger.

The Argentinian capital, Buenos Aires has been 'smoked out' as a result of large pasture clearing fires. More pasture than normal is being cleared for additional soybean production, as farmers seek to capitalize on high commodity prices. A state of emergency was declared, a result of the reduced visibility from the smoke. Some 70 000 hectares have been burnt.

Widespread fire activity was also noted in SE Asia, near the Burma/India border and extending into Laos, Thailand and southern China. Most of these fires are agricultural in nature, but typically some escape into natural areas.

In the United States, a large 9 000+ acre (~4000 ha) fire burned near Fort Carson, CO. The fire took more than a week, and the aid of a snowstorm, to contain. A tanker pilot lost his life while battling the blaze. A wildfire near Big Sur, CA was also noted. While not especially large or damaging, the fire is notable for its timing; this region doesn't usually see fires until mid-summer.

The upcoming fire season in the north is off with a bang, with trends suggesting that the summer could see a repeat of the high levels of fire activity noted last year. Indeed, as global warming increases, increased wildfire activity is likely to be a consequence. However, we cannot unequivocally say these fires are a direct result of climate change at this time.

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Image: Earth Observatory Natural Hazards

Indonesia: Microcosm of climate change

The UNFCCC Conference on Climate Change is taking place in Bali, Indonesia until 14 December. This international meeting is the opening stages of negotiations for a comprehensive treaty on the adaptation to and mitigation of climate change. In many ways, the location is ideal. While the meeting is happening in Bali, a resort island, Indonesia as a whole represents a world in miniature for climate change. A wide range of the expected impacts of climate change are already beginning to be observed there.

Indonesia is an archipelago, with over 17 500 islands (6000+ inhabited) and a predominantly Muslim population of over 230 million. The country has seen its share of internal political strife, with several separatist movements in the last decade. It has also faced economic turmoil, particularly hit by the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Straddling a major thrust fault, the nation is also subject to strong earthquakes and significant volcanic activity (source: CIA World Factbook). More to the point of this blog, there are many environmental issues of concern in Indonesia.

As an archipelago, the nation has an intimate relation with the sea. There are numerous coral reefs in the country. These have been long damaged by blast fishing and pollution, but now warming of the oceans associated with climate change is resulting in large-scale bleaching of the reefs. If unchecked, these could disappear within decades. Rising sea-levels are also a threat, with the possible disappearance of many small islands. Jakarta's airport could be flooded with sea water by 2035, and the Presidential Palace, 10 km inland could be flooded by 2080.

Indonesia also faces a threat to its food stocks. More erratic weather patterns have been observed over the past few years, making it increasingly difficult for farmers to successfully maintain crop yields. Indonesia lost 300 000 tons of crop production every year between 1992 and 2000, three times higher than the previous decade. Fish stocks are also dwindling, likely due to overfishing. Increasingly erratic climate variability associated with climate change suggests that these trends are likely to continue in the future.

Indonesia's extensive tropical forests are also in danger. Land clearing, particularly of the peatlands, can result in an enormous CO2 source. Much of the forest is being deliberately burned off to make room for palm oil plantations to make allegedly 'green' bio-fuels. At other times, the erratic climate results in widespread drought over the region, which dries out the forest an creates conditions suitable for massive wildfires. Conditions during the 1997-8 El Nino resulted in a particularly dramatic fire season here. Should such conditions become more frequent the resulting emissions of CO2 and destruction of forest could be devastating. Indonesia has made a proposal for wealthier nations to pay to avoid deforestation. It reeks of blackmail, but it may have to be adopted to avoid even worse consequences.

Climate-change-affected disease is also on the increase in the nation. This year has seen a particularly virulent strain of dengue fever become widespread. Whereas previously, fatalities from the disease mostly occurred among children, now 20% of the fatalities are adults. This is out of the realm of past experience. There have also been an unusually high number of cases of dengue in SE Asia in the past year.

This is not meant to single Indonesia out for particular blame. These problems, and many variants thereof, are occurring worldwide even as the negotiations ensue. Rather, this is a call to the delegates who are negotiating our future in Bali: Consider the impacts on the local environment of the conference. Take a look at what is happening around you. Do not underestimate the impact that climate change can and will have on our future. Of course, it is not just climate change but a whole host of environmental issues, like overfishing and deforestation, that need to be considered in the negotiations. Overpopulation and peak oil also should not be neglected. The basic framework for the future of our species and our planet is being decided at this meeting.

To use a sporting analogy, it's late in the second half and we are a few goals down. We can give up; we are sure to lose that way. Or we can keep playing like there is no tomorrow (because there isn't...). It is time to put aside our differences and play together as a team. Let's win one in spite of what the Gipper (and his ilk) have done to put us so far behind.

'Roof of the World" falling in

Tibet, a Plateau region in central Asia, is a region facing many problems. Besides having its culture overrun by China in the 1950s, the “roof of the world” has a host of environmental issues to contend with, many wrought by encroaching climate change.

Tibet was covered in tall cypress trees 4600 years ago but today is mainly a desert pasture. Tibet's spiritual leader-in-exile, the Dalai Lama, seems to imply that this is due to corrupt Chinese officials. They may very well be exacerbating the trend, but Tibet has been largely deforested for a long time, a result of clearing primarily to accommodate crops and livestock.

The average of altitude of Tibet is over 4900 m, and the region is mountainous. There are many glaciers in the region, with more being discovered all the time. As is the trend worldwide, many of the glaciers are shrinking. Over the past 100 years, the area covered by glaciers in the area has shrunk by an estimated 30%. The Tibetan Plateau is the source of of many of China's major rivers. As the glaciers there melt away, China's future water supply comes under threat.

As with the deforestation issue above, attribution of the source of this is somewhat politicized. The Chinese government hypothesizes that climate change is driving much of this. Tibetan activists place much of the blame on China's environmental policies. In reality, it is not likely an either/or situation, but rather a combination of both. That Mt Everest, the world's tallest mountain (which is not entirely within China's control), is undergoing significant melting (see image pair -- same site, 1968 on top, 2007 below), would suggest that climate change is driving much of this. Still, humans can have a large impact on the climate through land use changes...

Other evidence also suggests climate change. Temperatures in Tibet are rising at a rate about twice the global average, about 0.3 C per decade. This is consistent with other elevated regions of the world. The region has also been facing something of a drought, which is of course not a sign of climate change by itself. Still, much of the region has seen record-low humidity over the past few months, and parts of Tibet have seen 'Exceptional' levels of drought (see here for interactive global map). These observations are consistent with accelerating climate change around the globe. The Chinese are resorting to the creation of artificial snow, a first for the region in order to alleviate the extended dryer-than-normal conditions.

The impacts of climate change in Tibet have serious implications for the globe. Millions of people rely on the rivers which begin in this region for drinking water and irrigation. As a whole, China has been observing many impacts of climate change during the course of this year, from increasing desertification to extreme floods. Attempts to stabilize the flow of the Yangtze river (which incidentally originates in Tibet) with the Three Gorges dam have not been going well to date; the dam is creating more environmental problems than anticipated. If not effectively managed, these events create the possibility for future humanitarian crises (like food shortages), which in our increasingly volatile world can create the triggers for larger conflagrations.

Such a possible future highlights the need for effective action in adapting to and mitigating against climate change. The western nations need to show leadership at the upcoming Bali climate talks, rather than bickering and finger-pointing. Assigning blame is a pointless exercise. It may be too late to avoid some problems, but giving up and doing nothing insures that the worse will happen.

Profit uber alles?

To effectively combat environmental degradation and climate change, we need to listen to one another – as individuals, as states and as nations – to work together to overcome these global crises. Instead, we are seeing a selfish “me-first” sort of attitude at all levels

In Inner Mongolia, the grasslands are turning to sand. The deserts in this region of China are expanding – now ~28% of the land surface, up from 18% in 1994. It hasn't rained in 6 years. Sandstorms are increasingly common, increasing respiratory problems in the region, especially for children and the elderly. These problems are due to desertification, an old problem largely due to unsustainable development, including over-cropping, over-grazing, improper irrigation practices, and deforestation. It is largely preventable. Rather the government chooses to pursue profit, with year-round grazing and coal mining.

In Egypt, the government also chooses a destructive path for the future, attempting to “green the desert”. The government is encouraging people to move to the desert by pursuing a plan to reclaim 3.4 million acres of desert over the next 10 years. The plan involves massive irrigation from the Nile river. This is a disastrous and irresponsible plan, likely (in the long run) to cause more problems than it solves. The strain on resources will be enormous, and will create tensions between nations that share the Nile. These sorts of environmental tensions are dangerous, given the growing evidence of environmental links to the genocide in neighboring Darfur, Sudan.

A final example of short-sighted behaviour comes from Indonesia. There, the government is practicing “eco-extortion”, demanding payment of $5-$20 per hectare not to destroy its remaining forests. To me, this reeks of greed and pure profit motive. “Pay us or we'll damage the environment” -- a fit of childish pique. The developed nations of the world do have an obligation to assist still-developing nations in overcoming the perils inherent in our current future path. As a matter of fairness, these nations need to have their standards of living raised, but this sort of blackmail should be resisted.

While these examples are focused on the developing world, these nations are merely following the example the developed nations have set in the past. We are more guilty of these sins. Our behaviour must be changed if we expect others to follow. Leading-by-example is the best way to blaze the trail forward.

The current focus on short term profits is unhealthy, a hangover of the sort of 19^th and 20^th century thinking which brought about this mess in the first place. It is time for humanity to grow beyond this and redefine prosperity. A new economy is needed, with proper accounting for the “services” the environment provides. A move away from rampant consumerism and endless economic growth and acceptance that the word's resources are finite is crucial.

Asia: The heat of the moment

Sorry for the cheesy 80s song reference. I couldn't help myself!

Floods have ravaged Asia in 2007.

• Monsoon floods devastate South Asia – New Scientist

The floods have left millions homeless in India, Bangladesh and Nepal. But are the rains exceptional, and a product of global warming? Climatologists point out that until the last days of July, this summer's monsoon had been weak, with fears of crop failure due to drought rather than flood. Nevertheless, in general, global warming is adding to river flows by melting the glaciers of the Himalayas.

• Death toll approaches 700 after Chinese flooding, landslides – ABC News

• Dozens killed in NKorea floods --UPI

Several tropical cyclones have been noted, including

• Super Typhoon Sepat – EO Natural Hazards

Super Typhoon Sepat came ashore in Taiwan on August 17, 2007, after bringing torrential rain and flooding to the Philippines the day before. ... The typhoon was classified as Category Five typhoon...with sustained winds of 184 kilometers per hour (114 miles per hour), according to CNN.

• Thousands evacuated as China braces for storms – ABC News

Japan has had a tough season thus far. In July came super-typhoon Man-Yi, the worst storm to hit Japan since records began in 1951. and simultaneously, a large (~7.0) earthquake which damaged a nuclear plant. Now they are having an extended heatwave and difficulty meeting the associated increase in power demand.

None of these individual events can be explicitly shown to have been caused by anthropogenic. They are merely data points in the ongoing sample needed to statistically verify what your senses and your instinct are already telling you—things are changing; the weather is different.

The strongest climate forcings are those produced by humans, including the anthropogenic increase of CO2 from the burning of fossil fuels, other byproducts of our civilization like ozone or other pollution and changes brought about from modifications to the land surface. Recent news items indicate that these are apparent in Asia

• Early springs show Siberia is warming fast – New Scientist

Siberia is experiencing earlier springs, a study of satellite images has revealed. The trend is likely to be triggering more forest fires, say researchers, and to be linked to global warming.

• Big brown Asian cloud blamed for glacial melting – ABC News

Satellite pictures over much of Asia and the Indian Ocean show an enormous brown stain hanging in the air - an unwanted byproduct of rapid economic growth which is having a curious effect on climate change and is affecting Australia.

Named The Asian Brown Cloud, it is made up of pollutants from woodfires, cars and factories, and scientists now believe it to be the reason glaciers in the Himalayas are melting.

A study...at the CSIRO recently suggested that the Asian haze might be actually increasing the rainfall in tropical Australia by changing the balance of temperature and circulation between Asia and Australia,"

This last item brings another facet to the manipulations in the cryosphere, another potential source of glacial melting. I've seen seminars regarding the Brown Cloud research. It is one possible link to the increased rainfall over NW Australia, particularly in summer. The basic idea is that the cooling in the pollution cloud displaces the region where the 'thermal equator' or ITCZ lies, changing the rainfall patterns on quite a broad scale.

CO2 forcing is real. Land-surface forcing is real. Regardless of the dominant mechanism at any given locale, the changes are primarily human induced. The solution is similar for either problem: live in an environmentally sustainable manner.

Welcome to our new reality

Just a bit of weather news from this week...

• Floods, heat hit Europe, but is it global warming? -- Reuters

In its second heatwave this summer temperatures in Greece soared to 45 degrees Celsius (113 Fahrenheit) this week, following an earlier heatwave in June which set a new 110-year record of 46C.

Record temperatures this month have caused up to 500 deaths in Hungary, put 19,000 Romanians in hospital and triggered forest fires across Bulgaria.

And Britain saw this week its worst floods in 60 years, which have left about 350,000 people without running water.

But is it global warming?

The wildfires in Europe aren't simply confined to Bulgaria...In fact, as witnessed by NASA satellites, the fires are worse further to the west. See here also.

• Fires in Southern Europe

  

And as suggested by the title, it is not simply Europe...

• Thousands homeless as Asia weather misery spreads -- Reuters

  Asia's monsoon misery has spread to Nepal, leaving thousands of people homeless, while more rain is expected to bring further chaos to China's drowned southwest, where many have already lost homes, livelihoods and loved ones.

Rescuers dropped relief supplies to hundreds of people in Indonesia's Sulawesi island on Friday after days of torrential rain triggered landslides and floods.

• Floods affect half a million in northeast India -- Reuters

Floodwaters have poured into or destroyed more than half a million homes in India's northeast in the past couple of days, officials said on Wednesday.

On the Iran-Afghanistan border, a large dust plume has been observed.

Source points for the storm appear in an area known as the Hamoun wetlands, once an oasis for people and wildlife. By the start of the twenty-first century, a combination of expanded irrigation and severe drought had sucked the region dry, and winds that had once been cooled by wetland water began blowing dust.

The western United States has also been suffering through extreme drought and numerous wildfires, with Utah experiencing it largest ever wildfire at 363 000 acres (147 000 ha). See also here and here, for example.

So what is going on here? These sorts of events, occurring simultaneously, are extremely unusual. Or is this simply a reflection of increased information awareness? Have these sorts of events always gone on simultaneously, and we have never put the pieces together until now? I find that unlikely, at least for the last 10-20 years or so. And even beyond that, people had some inkling of what was going on in the wider world.

Is it just part of the vagaries of the normal chaos of weather, as the Deniers would have us believe? The usual method of blaming it all on El Nino is not valid this time. We are currently experiencing neutral to weak La Nina conditions. Besides, ENSO has been showing its own erratic behaviour for the last 20 years or so itself.

Or is it climate change? In a statistical sense, we cannot say with absolute certainty. These events are certainly consistent with the expected impacts of climate change. But perhaps similar weather happened before we took consistent global observations. We just don't know for sure, but I have my doubts about this. There is only so far these sorts of rationalizations can take you before they become ridiculous.

Even on the off chance that these events are not related to anthropogenic climate change, they are the harbinger of things to come. We should take these events and learn from them, as a model of what to expect more frequently in the future. 2007 is on track to be the second warmest year on record. We need to start getting serious about adaptation to and mitigation of climate change if humanity is to survive and thrive. This sort of weather is soon likely to be our everyday reality.

Climate impacts in China

Several stories regarding the climate change impacts have been in the news recently. Many of these are focused on the Tibetan Plateau. Due to its size and its position near the tropics, the Tibetan Plateau is one of the most ecologically diverse alpine communities on Earth. Impacts here have widespread consequences.

• Claims climate change drying up China's major rivers – ABC News

Aerial photos and satellite images had shown wetlands on the frigid Qinghai-Tibet plateau, which feed the Yangtze and Yellow rivers, had shrunk more than 10 per cent over the past four decades, reports the China Daily, citing the Chinese Academy of Sciences - a key government think tank.

"The wetlands at the origin of the Yangtze have suffered the most, contracting by 29 per cent," the paper said.

Wang Xugen, a CAS researcher, says the wetlands play a key role in regulating the flow of the rivers, which provide water for hundreds of millions of people and nearly half the country's farmland.

"The shrinking of the wetland on the plateau is closely connected with the global warming," the paper quoted him as saying.

This isn't the only problem on the Plateau...

• Melting Glaciers On The Tibetan Plateau – ScienceDaily

...[I]n the permafrost area of Fenguoshan, average precipitation has been increasing only in certain months of the year, while the general trend points toward drier periods.

The evidence is found in the permafrost itself, the overlying ground surface layer which freezes in the winter and thaws in the summer.

“In the last 20 years, larger portions of frozen ground have melted during summer,” says Professor Li. “With less water and more sand on the ground, desertification is just one step away.”

“Warming temperatures will certainly continue, but weather events such as rain, snow and wind are becoming less predictable,” Professor Li adds.

Experts today agree on one trend: Glaciers, rivers, wetlands and lakes — all elements of the fragile high-altitude ecosystem — are being altered at a speed never seen before.

Professor Li has personally witnessed the retreat of Yuzhu glacier, the highest peak in the Eastern Kunlun Mountains.

“I was in Xidatan, near Yuzhu Peak, for the first time in the 1980s, and when I went back, ten years later, the tongue of the glacier had retreated by 50 metres,” he says. “Nowadays it is about 100m higher than it used to be.”

There is some apparently good news...

• Official: China's problem with desertification decreasing as area of sanded land shrinks – AP via Climate Ark

  Desert coverage has been falling by about 1,200 square kilometers (460 square miles) each year for the past five to six years, Zhu Lieke, deputy director of the State Forestry Administration, said at a news conference.

But how significant is that statistic really, when the same story later says that China has 2.64 million sq km of desert? It's a pretty marginal area in comparison.

There is also an unusual flood season this year.

• Floods in central China – Earth Observatory

Unusually heavy summer rains led to widespread flooding across central China in June and July 2007.

• Weeks of Heavy rain show no let up in China – Reuters via Climate Ark

Large swathes of the country have been hit by severe flooding this summer, killing more than 400 people so far.

In the nearby landlocked city of Chongqing, hit by the heaviest rainfall since records began in 1892 [my emphasis], 37 people had died and the city and its suburbs had become "isolated islands" as streets flooded, Chinese media said.

The Health Ministry said the floods, and outbreaks of algae on lakes caused by hot weather and pollution, threatened drinking water supplies. It said officials must pay more heed to the problem.

While these floods and precipitation cannot be explicitly attributed to climate change, the timing of it says something ...Why are all these 'unusually heavy' and 'highest ever'-type events happening on a global scale occurring now? Surely the fact that 2007 is the 1^st or 2^nd hottest year on record thus far gives some validity to the hypothesis that these floods and other events are due to climate change.

China's huge population (1.3 billion) and economic circumstances place mean it is a pivotal player in determining the future of the planet. In terms of totals, China is the biggest emitter of carbon dioxide (The US still emits the most per capita) and they have recently released their first climate change plan, saying it is intent on tackling the problem but not at the expense of economic development.

This attitude is something of a disaster for the planet, not only in terms of climate change, but also the use of the finite resources available on our planet. Yes, China has every right to better her people through economic development, but it would be better if they could learn from the mistakes made by the West during the 20^th century. But, we in the West must do something too, other than cutting emissions by shifting them to China. That is a fool's game that benefits nobody. We should lead by example, altering our lifestyles to reject the mindless consumerism of the past 60 years or so, and allow for generous foreign assistance to developing nations to raise their standard of living to produce an equitable standard for all of the world's citizens. The selfish 'me first' attitude we currently exhibit will only bring resentment, and indeed already is.

Glacier Follow-up

Since posting Ice: Going, going... a few days past, several more articles regarding the glaciers have been released. The tone of that post is still in evidence. Glaciers are in retreat around the world.

• Glaciers in retreat – New York Times

D.P. Dobhal, a glaciologist who has spent three years climbing and poking the Chorabari glacier, stands at the edge of the snout and points ahead. Three years ago, the snout was roughly 27 meters, or 90 feet, farther away. On a map drawn in 1962, it was plotted 262 meters from here...

A recent study by the Indian Space Research Organization, using satellite imaging to gauge the changes to 466 glaciers, has found more than a 20 percent reduction in size from 1962 to 2001, with bigger glaciers breaking into smaller pieces, each one retreating faster than its parent. (See also this note at Oil Change.)

• Swiss glacier retreats at a rapid clip – Christian Science Monitor via Climate Ark

The problem is not simply that the Aletsch is melting, scientists say. Glaciers have melted for 2,500 years in Europe; at one ice-age point, the Aletsch nearly covered local mountain peaks. What concerns scientists is the pace of the melt.

"Yes, it should retreat, but not so fast. The glacier is in rapid retreat, which is a fact and a clear sign of climate change," Mr. Albrecht says.

In the past 30 years, studies show, the Aletsch has been losing 50 meters of length a year and is thinning. Some years show gains in length, others record losses. But the overall figure is one of shrinkage. Last year, it lost 115 meters – though in 2004 and 2005, the glacier gained about 50 meters per year.

"At this rate, by 2100 about 80 percent of the surface of the glacier will be gone," says Ralph Logon, a Swiss geomorphologist and expert on glaciers.

The remarks of the Swiss highlight the complexities involved in glacial advancement and retreat. This was also noted in the remarks on Kilimanjaro in my previous post and in the selections from Status of the Siachen Glacier In The Himalayas – Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr. Research Group Weblog. This glacier is apparently one of the larger glaciers in the Himalayas and has demonstrated a complex behaviour of advances and retreats since records began in 1862.

So, the behaviour of glaciers is complex, but I don't feel that a few counter-examples of non glacier-melting negates the general consensus of rapid glacial reduction in association with anthropogenic climate change. I think that the evidence for this consensus conclusion is overwhelming.

Yes, the dynamics of glaciers needs to be better understood in order to place these findings in a broader context. They should not be taken as a call for non-action on the climate. We cannot wait until we have absolute certainty if we wish to ease the multiple threats posed by climate change.

The Four Horsemen

Now, I'm personally not one for the Bible or religion, but it would seem that the traditional Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse: Pestilence,War, Famine and Death have been unleashed upon the Earth with climate change. Climate change impacts are not simply changes to the weather which will bring some minor inconveniences and annoyances to our existence. Rather, the fabric of our society and the survival of our species are potentially at stake. These effects are becoming apparent now.

Pestilence: South-east Asia Grapples With Dengue -- Inter Press Service News Agency

The surge in the number of dengue cases has already prompted health officials to say that 2007 may rank as one of the worst years recorded for a disease that is endemic from Burma to Brunei.

‘’There is a risk we are heading towards an epidemic situation in the region,’’ says Dr. John Ehrenberg, advisor for malaria and other vector-borne diseases at the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) Western Pacific regional office. ‘’We are seeing a serious increase in the number of cases relative to previous years in Singapore, Cambodia, Vietnam and Malaysia.

Its not just the countries above. Indonesia and and Thailand are reporting increases in the number of reported cases and deaths. Why the upswing now?

The WHO attributes the current increase in the number of dengue cases to climate change. The deaths due to dengue fever are among the 77,000 deaths recorded annually in the Asia-Pacific region linked to global warning, the Geneva-based health agency said at a recent conference in Malaysia.

‘’We have now reached a critical stage in which global warming has already seriously impacted lives and health, and this problem will pose an even greater threat to mankind in the coming decades if we fail to act now,’’ said Shigeru Omi, WHO regional director for Western Pacific.

The story also suggests that the worst epidemic on record was observed in 1998.

War: Global Warring: Climate Change Could Be The Root Of Armed Conflicts - Science Daily

Climate change, and the resulting shortage of ecological resources, could be to blame for armed conflicts in the future, according to David Zhang from the University of Hong Kong and colleagues. Their research, which highlights how temperature fluctuations and reduced agricultural production explain warfare frequency in eastern China in the past, has been published online in Springer’s journal Human Ecology.

But we didn't really need a study to know that. It is happening already in Darfur, Sudan, along with Famine: Environmental Degradation Triggering Tensions and Conflict in Sudan -- United Nations Environment Programme press release.

The most serious concerns are land degradation, desertification and the spread of deserts southwards by an average of 100km over the past four decades...

...[T]here is mounting evidence of long-term regional climate change in several parts of the country. This is witnessed by a very irregular but marked decline in rainfall, for which the clearest indications are found in Kordofan and Darfur states.

In Northern Darfur for example precipitation has fallen by a third in the past 80 years says the report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and its Post-Conflict and Disaster Management Branch.

The scale of climate change as recorded in Northern Darfur is almost unprecedented, and its impacts are closely linked to conflict in the region, as desertification has added significantly to the stress on traditional agricultural and pastoral livelihoods.

In addition, "forecast climate change is expected to further reduce food production due to declining rainfall and increased variability, particularly in the Sahel belt. A drop in crop yields of up to 70 per cent is forecast for the most vulnerable areas," says the Sudan Post-Conflict Assessment.

All of these, of course, are bringing the fourth horseman, Death. Another track it is taking: Death Rates Will Rise Because Of Global Warming, Researchers Warn - Science Daily

Global warming will cause more deaths in summer because of higher temperatures but these will not be offset by fewer deaths in milder winters finds an analysis published online ahead of print in Occupational and Environment Medicine.

Again, this one has already been observed in 2003 European heat wave, which claimed 35 000 lives.

While we most likely cannot avoid all adverse effects at this late date, we can act to reduce our emissions while continuing to grow the economy (from Science Daily). The real question is: can we get the Deniers to at least act as if climate change is a possibility and take appropriate steps to reduce the effects on ourselves and future generations.

Miscellany

Some relevant (and interesting) links via Climate Progress:

UN: Floods, heatwaves send signal about global warming - Mail and Guardian Online

"Heavy rainfalls in Pakistan, India and northern England and heatwaves in Greece, Italy and Romania are indications of what might happen more frequently and more severely across the globe as a consequence of global warming," said Salvano Briceno, director of the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction.

"We cannot wait to be taken by surprise; we know what is going to happen and we can prepare for it," he added.

No direct attribution of these events to climate change, but stating that this is consistent with what is expected to happen...How long do these things have to happen before we decide it is due to climate change?

Climate changes are making poison ivy more potent - Wall Street Journal Online

The latest research, led by Dr. Ziska, studied poison ivy plants in Maryland under different levels of carbon-dioxide exposure. One group of plants was exposed to about 300 parts per million of carbon dioxide -- about the same level found in the atmosphere in the 1950s. Another group was exposed to 400 parts per million of CO2 -- about the same level in the atmosphere today.

After about eight months, leaf size, stem length and weight and oil content of the plants raised at current carbon-dioxide levels were, on average, 50% to 75% higher than the plants under the 1950s conditions, according to the study, expected to be published this year in the journal Weed Science. Not only did the higher CO2 level double the growth rate, but it made for hardier plants that recovered more quickly from the ravages of grazing animals.

Oh joy! What a swell way to alter the ecosystem!

Arabian Sea cyclones

June has seen the formation of two tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea. The first, the formation of Cyclone Gonu in early-June was a highly unusual storm being the first Category 5 TC to be observed over the northern Arabian Sea. As seen in the satellite image at left, the cyclone had a quite distinct eye and was quite powerful.

The second storm, named Cyclone 03B, initially formed in the Bay of Bengal, dissipated and reformed over the Arabian Sea. Its strength was more typical of Arabian Sea TC, reaching only tropical storm strength.

At this time of the season, two events this close together, along with the intensity of Gonu is quite rare. Arabian Sea SSTs have recently been 1-2 C warmer than normal, particularly in early-June, which likely contributed to the strength of Gonu. These anomalies have been decreasing in strength since that time.

Tropical cyclone climatology suggests a small peak in TCs in May/June and a stronger peak in October/November for the entire north Indian Ocean basin...(see Fig 1.23). More of the storms reaching cyclone strength (65 kts; Fig 1.10) occur in the Bay of Bengal. Over the Arabian Sea, typically there are 5-20 cyclones per 100 years from any given point within the sea. The main focus of that activity lies in the eastern portion of the Sea. This figure, showing TC tracks over the N. Indian basin for the previous 25 years or so, summarizes these aspects of the climatology nicely.

Is this event an impact of climate change? The answer must be a qualified maybe. There is no doubt that Gonu, in particular, was an unusual event. We cannot be absolutely sure as to how unprecedented this event truly is. The data just aren't there. That said, it is just one more event in the (apparent) global trend of more frequent extreme events consistent with the hypothesis of anthropogenic climate change.