Climate change: The reality of now in Victoria

The Great CO2 Enhancement Experiment (~40% and rising!) continues unabated, and looks set to continue for the foreseeable future. Unfortunately, the results are coming in, and the verdict doesn't look good. Numerous lines of evidence from around the globe (as presented previously at planet doom?) support the idea that this is the case.

A recent jaunt across country Victoria prompted some reflection on the effects of climate change closer to home. Much of Australia, the southeastern corner in particular, is experiencing a long-term drought. In Melbourne, the drought is of 'unprecedented severity' – annual rainfall has been below average for 12 consecutive years. And the drought continues, with record-low monthly rain in September, and very little rain thus far in October.

Drought is a regular climatic event in this part of Australia, often corresponding with ENSO – El Nino years are dry, while La Nina years typically bring relief. Unfortunately, the recent La Nina brought little precipitation to the region. This may in part be related to the unprecedented events observed in the Indian Ocean; a third consecutive positive Indian Ocean Dipole (and apart from El Nino two years in a row, too). Historically, the positive IOD does show a negative relation with rainfall over this part of the continent.

The impacts of the drought are widespread, with concerns continuing to grow over the availability of water resources. The Murray-Darling river system -- southeastern Australia's lifeline – is a particular concern. For a third year running, very little water has been made available for irrigation along the river (also reported last year), with zero allocation in some parts. Nearly 90% of the wetlands in the MD Basin have disappeared. These effects are being exacerbated by human mis-management, with individual states acting on an ad-hoc basis.

Similar impacts are seen throughout Victoria. For much of the state, streamflows in the rivers are currently running below 10% of capacity. In total, water storage across the state is at 22% of capacity. Melbourne, a city of over 3m people, is slightly better off with storage levels at 34%. Water restrictions are in place..

Another consequence of the drought is the threat of wildfire becomes larger. In the current environment, the forested areas of Victoria are a particular are of concern for the upcoming summer. The water catchment areas of Melbourne are a concern; a major bushfire is these regions could increase the difficulty of maintaining an adequate water supply for the future.

The current drought is unprecedented in Australia's recorded history (over 100 years). This is climate change, part of the growing climate instabilities being observed around the globe. An enhancement (a corruption!) of the natural variability. The hysteresis in the Earth system means the effects, from causes long past, are only now becoming apparent. And the causes (i.e. CO2 radiative forcing) continue today, meaning that these events and their impacts are but a foretaste of our future.

Australia and Victoria are among the first -- by no means the last -- to confront the new realities of climate change. Adaptation will be a long, difficult process. Water – vital to human life -- is but one issue among many. Understanding how climate and the hydrologic cycle interact is crucial for the future. As Australian federal and state governments try to manage the current water crisis, the globe will be watching to learn from both our mistakes and successes. Adaptation is an unknown challenge and recent events provide an opportunity to lead the world towards a brighter, greener future.

In both a local and global sense, the time to act is now. Inaction is not an option. Society must adapt to the immediate realities and simultaneously try to minimize future impacts, through both emissions reductions and the development of a less environmentally intense lifestyle. We owe a moral obligation to future generations to accomplish this, a Green New Deal for the 21^st century.

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Images: 1. Low water levels in Thomson Dam via The Age
2. A nice gum tree in Lake Eildon NP, by me

Arctic summer blues

Of all the evidence implicating Man's deleterious impact on the climate of the Earth, few (if any) are more unequivocal than the goings-on in the farthest reaches of the North Hemisphere, the Arctic. As the boreal summer of 2008 fades, even a brief survey of the region reveals the extent of the damage and the depth of humankind's folly...

• Arctic sea ice reached it's second lowest areal extent (since 1979), and by volume its lowest level ever this past summer. Rapid sea ice loss may accelerate the melting of the permafrost, which contains more carbon than initially thought.

• The northern part of the Greenland ice sheet experienced extreme snowmelt... with large portions of the area subject to record melting days. Melting in northern Greenland lasted up to 18 days longer than previous maximum values.

• Most glaciers in every mountain range and island group in Alaska are experiencing significant retreat, thinning or stagnation, especially glaciers at lower elevations.

• The Arctic region in general has been getting increasingly stormier since 1950, presumably part of the anthropogenically-induced climate instability we've been experiencing in recent years.

• Icelandic glaciers are also melting rapidly, and the rate is projected to increase. Iceland also saw its record high temperature earlier in the summer. (See also this story regarding an Icelandic dust storm associated with the remnants of Hurricane Ike is also interesting...)

While some degree of benefit may be felt by a few segments of society in these regions (see also the Iceland video linked above...), the consequences of climate change are dire for most—both locally and globally. Polar bears are becoming increasingly endangered, as their primary habitat disappears during the summer. Some may shrug their shoulders and say 'So what?', but they fail to realize the danger. The impact of a damaged segment of the Earth system isn't necessarily localized, but rather cascades through the different interlocking 'spheres'. For example, the loss of aquatic sea otters in Alaska has effects on the terrestrial eco-system.

The final result of this ecological damage to the Arctic is ultimately unpredictable, and quite likely to be global. But it most likely won't be positive. But the prospects of the radical changes to our world needed to avert this slow-motion catastrophe don't appear to be forthcoming. Nothing will be done until it is too late. We could save the planet if we wanted, but we're too damn cheap!*

And all this gives me the blues. The Arctic Summer Blues to be exact. Imagine the music of your favorite 12-bar blues rock song ('Red House' by Jimi Hendrix is a good one...) and sing along:

The polar ice is melting...

and its getting more stormy too!

The glaciers are retreating...

as the permafrost turns to goo!

There's only one thing to do for sure...

Stop emitting CO2!!

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Image: Science Daily. Muir glacier: August 1941, August 1950 and August 2004.

*This sentence paraphrased from 'Hocus Pocus' by Kurt Vonnegut.