Societal collapse: Coming soon?

Once the domain of survivalists, religious zealots and other disaffected souls, the possibility of societal collapse has recently gained more respect in the broader, mainstream community, discussed in widely-regarded books and the blogs of the New York Times (and elsewhere!). Questions abound: How realistic is this notion? Are we close to a collapse? Can we act to prevent it?

To say that our planet and society as a whole is facing a few troubles is a bit of an understatement. The climate is unequivocally changing; a casual glance at planet doom? illustrates the many and varied impacts. There are too many people, and food shortages are becoming more apparent. Cheap oil and natural gas, the foundations of our technological society, are at or near peak production. They will only become more scarce (and hence more expensive) in the future. The unbridled global economy is teetering on the brink of collapse, exacerbating the other threats. To top it all off, the most powerful military in the history of mankind is in the control of lunatic war-mongers who will do anything to further the cause of the global corporations.

Despite this, many in positions of influence seek to maintain the status quo, unable or unwilling to acknowledge the reality of the problems facing us. Some of the excuses/reasoning: Climate change is just down to natural variability; There's plenty more oil/natural resources left, the 'greenies' just won't let us drill/mine/clearcut; Technological innovation will save us; Malthus and all the other doomsayers have always been wrong, so they are this time, too; We have other pressing problems, we'll deal with it later; Hakuna Matata – No worries, mate!.

The predicted impacts of these dilemmas are equally varied. James Lovelock, who conceived of the Gaia Hypothesis, suspects that it is too late to mitigate climate change and that billions will perish before the end of the century, leaving only a remnant of humanity surviving at the the poles. Others also support this 'giga-death' point of view. A recent book, The Long Emergency, by JH Kunstler makes a slightly less grim, but still shocking, prediction of the future of (primarily) the US. He expects a complete breakdown of the American way of life, with a return to more agrarian times and a lower energy-intensive lifestyle. Some parts of the US, especially the south and west, fare especially poorly in his vision. A recent post over at Climate Progress on this book discussed this view and, along with many of the commenters, generally rejected at least the severity of it. Of course, those who deny the seriousness of the problem have no dire predictions, expecting the consequences to be minor inconveniences rather than a serious issue. The general mainstream view seems to be along these lines, with some problems, but nothing threatening.

For what its worth, my views tend to the darker side of things. But I, like everyone else, don't really know. I don't feel things will be as extreme as Lovelock and Kunstler, but it's not going to be a walk in the park, either. I think our world is in for a major reorganization, and a lot of people are going to perish, due to starvation, warfare and disease. Our self-indulgent, western way of life is going to come crashing down, and the developing world is going to be hit even harder. The pace of climate change is too quick, and the energy and financial problems will only exacerbate things. If we can contain our bloodlust in the inevitable conflicts for resources (food, water, oil...), we have a chance at the future. If not, it is a long fall. And if the world resorts to WMDs to resolve these conflicts, then all bets are off. Mind you, I desperately want to be wrong on this, and look back in 20 years time and laugh at my naivete. My fear is that I won't be able to.

Awareness of these issues is growing, but the magnitude and extent of the crisis is still underestimated. The climate has become an issue for the upcoming national election (24 November) in Australia. But the two major parties have somewhat tentative policies for climate change, and issues like peak are not even really a concern. The minor parties are better, but even the Greens are underestimating the problem. Their campaign literature still speaks of climate change impacts as something that will happen, not as something ongoing. For much of the western world, neoliberal economics and unlimited growth are still the dominant paradigm. As a society, I fear we (myself included) are woefully unprepared for what awaits us.

Regardless of one's personal opinion of the issue, a risk management-type approach should be taken to deal with these issues. Risk can be defined as the likelihood of something happening times the consequences of that event happening. The consequences of a Lovelockian 'giga-death' scenario are incalculable – a very, very large number. So unless the chances of it occurring an infinitesimal (and I suspect they are low, but not non-existent), the risk is large, and prudence dictates action be taken to reduce that risk. Maybe the excuses/rationales noted earlier for inaction will prove to be valid and society is in no danger of a collapse. Even if this is the case, our lifestyles are demonstratively unsustainable, and this must be remedied.

There is also the moral aspect. We owe future generations a right to a viable existence. It should be our goal to at least provide as much to them as was provided to us. As the UN said today (my emphasis):

"The effects of climate change are being felt already," said Yvo de Boer, executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

"Climate change will hit hardest the poorest and most vulnerable countries. Its overall effect, however, will be felt by everyone and will in some cases threaten people's very survival.

"Failing to recognise the urgency of this message and acting on it would be nothing less than criminally irresponsible."

It is time for the rich nations of the world to lead by example and act seriously to adapt and mitigate climate change. We caused the problem, we need to lead the way to fixing it, rather than pointing fingers at China and India. They aspire to the same life we lead and who are we to deny it if we won't curb our own excesses. Blaming others for the problems we caused is pathetic, a sign of the narcissistic, delusional culture we have created. Who knows, maybe the crises we are facing can have some positive outcome and lead to a fairer, more just world for all.

Keeping tabs on Antarctica

Here is the latest news from Antarctica, the southernmost continent. For past posts on the region on planet doom?, see here.

Ozone

After an early start and a rapid decrease in ozone levels earlier in the season, the area of the ozone hole is currently below the 1997-2006 average. Recent news reports have noted that this is due to the relatively mild weather conditions, not a sign of the expected recovery. That is still a decade or two off, at the minimum. The image showing the hole is from the NASA Ozone Watch website. There are also some nice time series plots of the current year, as well as graphs showing the interannual variability. The decreased intensity of this year's hole is consistent with forecasts made back in August by the WMO.

Ice

A look at the time series found at Cryosphere Today reveals that the annual melting of the sea ice has begun. Last winter, sea ice reached its maximum annual extent, and still remains anomalously high at this time. After the record melts in the Arctic earlier this year, it will be interesting to see what happens in the south. As noted in a previous post, paleo-climate studies show that an asymmetric response to climate forcing between the hemispheres is possible. Hence, there is no reason to expect a record melt in Antartica and the lack of such says nothing about the reality of ongoing global warming and climate change.

A large iceberg was seen calving off the Pine Island glacier, part of the West Antarctica Ice Sheet. See this page at NSIDC for a recent high resolution image of the iceberg. This is apparently a natural phenomenon, occurring every 5-10 years. The iceberg is approximately 70 000 ha in size. The glacier itself is thinning and accelerating towards the sea, but the iceberg is neither a part of nor a consequence of that longer-term change.

As noted in a previous post, the trends in the behaviour of the ice in Antarctica are complex and difficult to decipher. The mass of the ice is apparently of getting less, while the area increases. Anecdotally, the ice in the region has been retreating over the past 15 years. Understanding these behaviour of the ice is crucial for a better understanding of cryosphere/climate system interactions.

Science Activities

As noted above, science and research activities are extremely important in Antarctica and the austral spring is when the activities begin in earnest. Several projects have made the news recently. Some efforts are going into the development of techniques to measure the thickness of the sea ice. Others are attempting to install seismographs or GPS units to measure movements of the ice, with the hope of better understanding the dynamics of the ice sheets and glaciers and their interaction with the land below. These projects mentioned represent only a small part of the science activity which is undertaken during the summer months. Many activities are being undertaken under the auspices of the International Polar Year.

Politics

In my last post about Antarctica, I expressed the hope that we humans could avoid the return to the 16^th century and the race to claim land to exploit it for nationalistic selfish purposes. Alas, it is not to be. We humans are going to ruin the last unspoilt place on Earth, all to 'safeguard the future'. The UK is investigating making a claim on the surrounding seabeds. China is sending its largest team in two decades this summer to reassert its presence on the continent. Chile isn't backing down from its long-standing claims. Australia actually has the largest claim, but what can they do if their claim is jumped? None of these claims is actually valid at this time because of the Antarctic Treaty, but as it becomes more apparent that we have passed peak oil. I would suspect that all bets are off. Like any addict, our insatiable 'jones' will destroy any moral or ethical qualms we may have. Let's hope there isn't any oil down there...

I find it extremely sad -- but entirely predictable -- that this is happening. We, as a species, should be pulling together now to prevent the larger disaster lurking on the horizon, wrought by the confluence of climate change, peak oil, overpopulation and the like. Instead, we continue with our neo-liberal corporatist ways, externalizing all costs to the environment, in search of the almighty dollar (soon to be euro?). Humans are in deep trouble...I suspect sooner that we think.

Addenda

Thanks to llewelly for pointing me to the Cryosphere Today website.

For a more thorough take on the societal collapse type stuff, check out the Survival Acres blog. I like the writing there, but personally try to maintain a more positive attitude...

Animal adjustments

One sign of climate change is a change in the habitat and behaviour of different fauna, both on land and water. Earlier posts on planet doom? noted these sorts of changes in marine fauna. Over the past few months, several reports of unusual animal sightings on land and at sea have been reported. Some of these are summarized below.

• As a consequence of the unprecedented extent of Arctic ice melt this past summer, thousands of walruses --including breeding females -- appeared on Alaska's northwest shore. Normally found on the ice pack, the walruses were apparently driven from their normal territory in search of food. It is unclear if they are able to find enough in the regions where they were searching. The linked article also notes similar sightings in Russia.

• Dolphins have been frequent indicators that something is amiss. In addition to being seen in Scotland and not in France earlier, this season, two dolphins – a mother and her calf-- were spotted in the Baltic Sea, north of Germany recently. Maritime experts there assume their appearance is a result of warmer temperatures associated with global warming.

• Seven sub-Antarctic leopard seals were reported on the New South Wales coast in Australia in September. While the seals have been observed that far north before, the number of creatures is somewhat unusual. Researchers suggested there was presently no evidence that their appearance was linked to global warming, but the possibility could not be ruled out.

• In Kenya, a new troupe of white-bearded De Brazza's monkeys has been sighted in the Great Rift Valley, a place they have never been spotted before now. The monkeys moved into an area of forest which has dried out as Kenya's climate has become more arid, a result of the changing climate.

It is not just animals appearing in new locales. Their behaviour can also change, a natural response to human-induced environmental stress.

• Some bird species in Australia are responding climate change with a range of behaviours. Some spring migrants are now arriving many days earlier than previously documented. Others are demonstrating new breeding behaviours. These observations are not limited to Australia, but have been noted in North America and Europe previously. See here for a previous post on birds.

• Snakes have stayed active through the winter in Tasmania. Warming temperatures as a result of climate change is probably to blame for the snakes shunning their normal dormant period.

• Some good news (sorta...). Mosquito numbers along the Murray River in SE Australia are likely to be down this summer. This is due to low rainfall and decreasing river levels. This is a result of climate change to the degree that the drought is a result of climate change. Only those who live inland and in riverine areas are likely to notice a difference – coastal areas will have the same levels. Personally, I'd rather have the water and no drought...

Of course, climate change is just one way that humans affect the different ecosystems. Pollution and fertilizer runoff from farms and ranches has led to frog deformities, as well as affecting coral reefs and contributing to the creation of hypoxic dead zones in the oceans. General environmental mis-management also plays a role. For instance, over-fishing has resulted in 76% of fish stocks being fully- or over-exploited, placing marine biodiversity at extreme risk. Other examples abound.

Our neoliberal, consumer-based society has failed at providing adequate environmental stewardship. The race for profits, short-term gain and cheap consumer goods has blinded us to our duty to the future. The effects we are having on the non-human beings we share the world with are alarming. We are on the wrong path, both for them and us. There is no guarantee that these animal adjustments will work out satisfactorily.

There are steps we can take to reduce our impact, though. The sooner we act, the 'easier' it will be to correct our unsustainable ways. Unfortunately, a recent poll in the UK (which certainly seems consistent with the attitudes I have encountered in Australia and the US) indicate that majority are unwilling to make the changes required to adapt and/or mitigate to climate change. I fear it will take some sort of mega-catastrophe (the string of unprecedented disasters we've had the past few years hasn't been enough...) to wake people up to the reality of our predicament. We can only hope it won't be too late (if it isn't already...).

Life in a parallel universe

Climate change is an ongoing reality, but many of our leaders would appear to be living in some alternate reality of their own devising. This is certainly true here in Australia -- the current government imagines that we are leaders on climate change and the deputy prime minister doubts the reality of climate change.

But this failure to grasp reality isn't limited to Australia, it is a worldwide phenomenon -- a natural trait of our species. The government of the US is still censoring climate reports, apparently just hoping the problem will magically go away if it is not discussed. Many of the major polluting nations of the world (e.g. India, China, USA) refuse to abide by any mandatory greenhouse gas emissions reductions (as do many who aren't major polluters). Instead, China is building high emission coal-fired power plants as quickly as they can, in large part in response to service the demand from developed nations for cheap consumer goods. Many rich nations are simply exporting their carbon demand to poorer nations like China, and then rationalizing their inaction because China and India are not included in Kyoto.

These actions are a sign of a deep disconnect with reality. It is time for the nations of the world to grow up. Reducing GHG emissions is the only way to limit the extremely high costs of climate change in the future. As a whole, the EU is managing to meet its Kyoto obligations (but not every individual country within the EU...) while maintaining its economy and an exceptional standard of living. It can be done. The nations of the world must act decisively and cooperatively to overcome the grave threats of climate change. Fatalism is not an option.

Make no mistake, the rate of CO2 emissions is accelerating. The effects of this are also becoming more apparent and widespread. It is time for out leaders to stop the denial and make a full acknowledgment of the reality we have created. The knowledge is out there. We may not know the exact path global warming will take, but it is unlikely to be pleasant. The future of our civilization is potentially at stake. Sensible cooperative action is our only choice.

Environmental threats to food

Some very serious environmental issues are gaining wider exposure in the media as of late. All three of these issues have been noted previously on planet doom?. And all three threaten the security of our food supply, now or in the future.

A particularly pressing issue is the here and now threat to our food supply. An article from ScienceAlert indicates that world food security is at its lowest levels since recordkeeping began about 50 years ago. The accompanying graphic illustrates the sharp downward trend over the past 6-7 years.

What is driving this? Climate change, especially its effects on amplifying drought. Numerous droughts and unprecedented floods have been reported this year, affecting crop production and degrading the land. Locations around the world -- the United States, India, Europe, Africa, Asia, Australia -- are feeling the pinch. Plant diseases are flourishing in the newly changed climate. Soils are becoming over-used and subject to desertification.

Nitrogen pollution is emerging as a potential threat to diversity. This inert gas, vital to life, is being deposited from the atmosphere to the earth at an increasing rate. This extra nitrogen comes from human sources, namely automobiles and intensive farm practices. This deposition reduces species diversity in grasslands, with unknown consequences. The threat may be reducing. Or it may be too late and we have already passed a tipping point. We just don't know. Does this only affect grasslands, or is this factor playing a role in the loss of diversity (in addition to other human meddling) being observed in forests?

To feed the growing population and makeup for the shortfall in grain we are observing, more intensive agriculture is required. But this causes further nitrogen pollution, further degrading the land and reducing food production...An unpleasant feedback loop. The ScienceAlert article noted above suggests that more scientific/agricultural research input is required, but unfortunately government policy (at least in Oz) is making this unfeasible. The government is making token gestures, but they are apparently underestimating the magnitude of the problem.

Unfortunately, we may not be able to rely on the ocean to makeup the shortfall. Ocean acidification, a byproduct of our CO2 enhancement experiment, is threatening corals and subsequently other marine life. This acidification is proceeding much faster than expected, on the scale of decades rather than the centuries previously imagined.

From the article

Corals and plankton with chalky skeletons are at the base of the marine food web. They rely on sea water saturated with calcium carbonate to form their skeletons. However, as acidity intensifies, the saturation declines, making it harder for the animals to form their skeletal structures (calcify)...[but]“It isn’t just the coral reefs which are affected – a large part of the plankton in the Southern Ocean, the coccolithophorids, are also affected. These drive ocean productivity and are the base of the food web which supports krill, whales, tuna and our fisheries.

So, if the threat from overfishing and marine pollution weren't enough, we now (potentially) have another way to do ourselves in. Overfishing itself is partially responsible for reef destruction, and other fishing methods, designed with 'economic efficiency' in mind, also wreak havoc on biodiversity. Recent observations of the increase in jellyfish numbers suggest that we may have already pushed the ocean ecosystem too far even without acidification...That will just be the coup d'gras.

These new findings indicate that our CO2 enhancement experiment -- and the associated climate change – are truly a threat to humankind. The time has come to get serious about action to rectify this intolerable situation. The future depends on it. Let's hope we act before it is too late (if it is not already).

A bigger picture

Today is Blog Action Day, where 15000+ bloggers all speak out on one issue, the environment. As that is the usual focus of planet doom?, I have decided to focus on the big picture today. What are our most pressing problems and what are we going to do about it. I always vaguely talk about solutions. Today I expand on some of those ideas. It turned out to be a bit of an extra-long rant, but I hope you will enjoy it anyway!

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To me, climate change is obvious. Yes, I know, paleoclimate studies tell us the climate has changed many times in the past and that climate change is a natural phenomenon. But many of the more extreme changes deduced from past evidence were not entirely “natural”; rather, they were the result of some greater climate forcing being applied (which have mostly arisen from natural phenomenon).

But the recent changes are unprecedented. The forcing in the case is humanity's uncontrolled CO2 enhancement experiment; since the dawn of the Second Industrial Revolution in the mid-19^th century, humans have -- heedless to the consequences – added approximately 35% to the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. That CO2 is a radiatively active gas -– absorbing infrared radiation and affecting the climate -- has been known for over 100 years. The effects of this enhancement on today's climate are readily apparent. To name a few:

• Rising global temperatures

• unprecedented heat waves

• record melting of Arctic sea ice

• longer, more intense drought

• global sea level rise

• enhanced precipitation

• Increased atmospheric water vapour

The effects listed abovecan be thought of as 'primary' effects. These flow through the environment and produce more subtle 'secondary' effects. These aren't any less threatening, just indirect. Just a few

• worldwide food shortages

• water shortages

• climate refugees and warfare

• increased wildfires

• emergence and spreading of disease

Climate change is not a isolated issue; rather, it goes hand-in-hand with many other environmental issues like overpopulation, overfishing, deforestation, desertification and the like. The root causes of most of these problems are our self-interested greed, the idea that our species exists 'outside' of nature – the Earth was created for us to exploit – and the “she'll be right, mate” attitude taken towards the dilemmas created by our poor stewardship of the planet.

The beginning of the end for these attitudes was revealed in 1962 with Rachel Carson's Silent Spring, which helped launch the modern environmental movement. Despite this wake-up call, our complacency large remains today. Like syphilitic emperors of yore , we fiddle with trivialities – the latest mobile phone, Britney Spears, or “monitizing” our inane blogs (planet doom? is proudly ad-free)– while our civilization burns around us.

To be fair, we have taken some small steps to rectifying our environmental problems ; for example, more of us recycle now and the use of more efficient light bulbs is encouraged or even mandated in some places. But these are but small initial steps for the long journey ahead. Individual action is important, but nothing less than a re-thinking of our current worldview and a re-organization of society will be needed to overcome the problems we face. Some big, but prudent, steps are needed now to maintain a decent standard of living and avoid a complete collapse of our society. These must be implemented in a global framework; if we don't all pull together, nothing will get done

Some of the things I think need to be done are listed below. These are some broad themes,developed from the various readings I have done over the months/years. They are woefully short on detail. I don't personally have all the answers (and neither does anyone else...). It is obviously impossible to do all of these immediately, but we need to start working towards these goals to avoid an even worse fate.

Reduce Pollution

• Stop emitting greenhouse gases now! Carbon dioxide is a serious problem, a noxious effluent from our way of life. Cap-and-trade or carbon tax needed to provide the economic motivation

• Agricultural reform. Current farming practices wreak havoc on the environment. Pesticides, fertilizer runoff, erosion, soil degradation...There's got to be a better way

• More public transport. Drive less, walk more, ride a bike. We can't all drive a high-environmental impact vehicle for every little trip.

• Energy conservation. Insulate your house and use efficient appliances. Turn your telly off, it rots your mind anyway.

• Develop alternate energy sources. Eliminate coal, oil and gas to the extent possible. We've likely hit peak oil anyway, so it's not viable for too much longer. Avoid nuclear if possible. Let's try solar and wind power

Social Reform

• Reduce the population. There are too many of us. Encourage people to have fewer children. If we don't do it, disease or warfare or some other calamity will do it for us...

• Stop consumerism. Going shopping should not be a source of entertainment. We don't need most of the stuff that we buy/use. More stuff does not make you happier. Ask yourself, “Do I really need this?” before you make a purchase.

• Work for global fairness and justice. The current system works through plunder and exploitation of the poor. This needs to stop. Instead of us-vs-them, let's work towards creating a mutually inclusive society where everyone is entitled to a minimum standard: healthy food, clean water, basic medical care, a safe environment and a right to meaningful employment.

• Change our personal values. More respect for the environment. Less focus on material things.

Economic Reform

• Develop a sustainable capitalism. Capitalism is the worst economic system, except for all the other ones that have been tried. It, in one form or another, is here to stay. But it needs to account for environmental factors. The environment provides many services which aren't currently accounted for. These need to be taken into account to measure the true costs of our actions.

• Stop militarizing the economy. Our basic capitalistic society collapsed in 1929. It was jump-started by WW2, and the insane military build-up has continued since then. Our whole economy is based on bigger bombs, more guns and always finding an enemy to fight. It is a destructive, poisonous way to live life, and if the half a trillion dollars spent on the largely pointless Iraq war had been spent tackling the problems we face, we would be a lot closer to the solutions we need. This economic system is beginning to break down as well.

So is this a Utopian pipe dream? Of course it is, but it is at least something to strive for. Will we ever reach it? I doubt it, as it involves overcoming a lot of basic human biological nature, like selfishness, greed and looking out for one's tribe. But it is something to try for. The alternative is to give up and continue along our current dead-end path. And that is not possible. We cannot give up. We have a moral imperative to future generations to avert our future course away from its current path. I don't want my family or my children's children to live on planet doom.

River impacts

In this post from planet doom?, the possibility of enhanced flooding along rivers due changes in water uptake from vegetation was briefly noted. In general, rivers face many dangers from both our current environmental management practices and climate change. A few recent items below highlight these threats.

A new study suggests that many rivers impacted by dams or extensive development will require significant management interventions to protect ecosystems and people, Because of the changes in the flow of rivers globally wrought by damming and/or development, most have a diminished capacity to adjust to the changes expected with global warming.

The changes to river systems are expected to vary -- some are expected to have large increases in flood flows while other basins will experience water stress such that there is not enough water to meet human needs. For example, by the 2050's, mean annual river discharge is expected to increase by about 20 percent in the Potomac and Hudson River basins but to decrease by about 20 percent in Oregon's Klamath River and California's Sacramento River

Recent news items demonstrate some negative effects of human 'management' of river systems, even before we have felt the full brunt of climate change. This news article reports that 15 000 wildebeest dies while crossing the Mara river in Kenya. Such a mass death was the first of its king in recent memory. Many of the animals died as a result of being trampled. Some officials blame the destruction of the nearby Mau forest for changing weather patterns and affecting tide levels, and they called on the government to curb the deforestation.

The Three Gorges dam in China is also proving to be an 'ecological disaster', even before it is fully completed. The water quality of the Yangtze's tributaries is deteriorating rapidly, as the dammed river is less able to disperse pollutants effectively. The incidence of algae blooms have risen steadily since the reservoir was completed in 2006. The rising water is also causing rampant soil erosion, resulting in riverbank collapses and landslides along the shores of the Yangtze's tributaries.

These events illustrate examples of the dangerous secondary effects we have seen with our current environmental degradation. Climate change will likely exacerbate these effects. The inter-linkages within the biosphere means that even relatively simple alterations to the environment are likely to have unforeseen consequences. Great care is required if we want to avoid the worst follow-on effects. This especially applies to climate change, about which we are woefully ignorant and arrogantly overconfident -- a dangerous combination. The time is now for prudent action to (try to) pull back from the brink of dangerous climate change, before it is too late for future generations.