A sad tale: Antarctic whaling

As austral summer approaches and the 'high season' of the Antarctic opens up, Australia and Japan are gearing up for another round in the Great Game 2.0, the quest to control Antarctica and the potential resources it represents if and when the Antarctic Treaty breaks down.

The lead ship of the Japanese whaling fleet, the Nisshin Maru, has set out on its annual 'scientific whaling' expedition. The ship left from Innoshima in western Japan with little fanfare. A Greenpeace spokesperson said, “Constant pressure on Japan's whaling industry...has reduced the fleet to sneaking out of port in a fog of crisis and scandal, desperate to avoid attention”.

Last year, diplomatic tensions rose between Australia and Japan, a result of confrontations between anti-whaling activists Sea Shepherd and the whalers. Protesters launched stink-bombs and boarded the Japanese ships without permission and were held captive for several hours. Ultimately, the whalers returned home with only around half the numbers of whales killed for their 'study' than had been planned.

This year, it is anticipated that Japan will have a quota of 850 minke and 50 fin whales. The Australian government is unlikely to send an official vessel to monitor the activity. Also, Greenpeace has decided not to send an anti-whaling ship this year amid expectations Japan may send a coastguard ship with the fleet to ward off activists. (Wouldn't this be technically illegal under the Treaty, which prohibits militarization of the continent?). Sea Shepherd again plans to disrupt the hunt, hoping to send two ships this season.

Earlier this year, Japan's scientific body in charge of the whaling endeavor published a paper claiming a 'key finding' from the research:

The new study analysed measurements taken from 4,689 adult whales killed by the Japanese whaling fleet between 1988 and 2005. It found that blubber thickness and overall fat weight had decreased by 9% over the period, which it called a 'substantial decline". Girth of the animals was down 4%. The study says: "This is the first time a long-term decline in energy storage in minke whales has been demonstrated."...

...[T]he decline in blubber was down to shrinking numbers of Antarctic krill, a shrimp-like crustacean at the heart of the food chain. The amount of blubber lost is roughly equivalent to 36 fewer days of intensive summer feeding.

Krill numbers in the water around the rapidly-warming Antarctic peninsula have collapsed by about 80% since the 1970s. This is blamed on the loss of sea ice, which provide shelter and food for krill.

The study says the impact of global warming on the minke whales is unclear because no similar krill measurements have been made in that region of the Southern Ocean. But it claims that competition for krill from other predators such as the humpback must also be "considered as a likely explanation".

Some criticisms:

• They then claim that the Antarctic minke whales that they did the study on must be competing with other whales, like humpback whales that are increasing in numbers, for a limited amount of krill. We think the science behind showing those trends is very weak at best and the explanation they put forward is extremely simplistic.

• Lots of dead bodies will provide robust data, so if you kill lots of whales then you will be able to get some information. The question is whether the benefits outweigh the number of whales killed and how they were killed. Scientific whaling is not about science, and there is no pressing conservation need that requires it to be done. (Link same as before)

I tend to agree with the critics. There is a lot of pointless slaughter for not a lot of benefit; a relatively minor finding with a fairly speculative conclusion*. And this is apparently one of the few (the first?) peer-reviewed article to appear describing the results of this 20-year experiment. Scientific whaling is obviously a sham, a cheap facade, a cynical ploy to evade the international moratorium on commercial whaling.

While there is no doubt that many in Australia care deeply about the whales, I still maintain that the Australian Government has an ulterior motive, namely reinforcing its claim to Antarctica by re-affirming its moral claim in the area. This season, rather than risk a potentially violent confrontation, Australia is sending a scientific expedition to prove it was not necessary to kill the ocean mammals to study them. Let the 'pirates of compassion' directly confront the whalers, while the government pursues legal avenues. Plus, if there is no official presence there is no pressure to stop the activists.

And make no mistake, the Treaty is failing. Already suggestions are being made to end the Treaty, under the guise of environmental protection. While the environment is feeling the effects of humanity, mainly through overfishing , allowing national claims opens the door for further exploitation to the continent. It's already happening in the rapidly degrading Arctic, it will happen down South given the slightest chance, despite good intentions and promises to the contrary. Something should be done to protect the Antarctic, I doubt this is it...

Another version of the tragedy of the commons is revealing itself and Australia is making some clever moves in the early rounds of this Great Game. Whales make a good cover story and it's popular domestic politics. Realpolitik says the game must be played, failure to do so automatically results in a loss. Unless the rules change, this is The Way the World Works.

Protecting the whales is the right thing to do, as well. Taking out the upper links of the oceanic food web will have unknown consequences on the ecosystem at-large. Further, some species of whales share brain structures that make us human, indicating the possibility of consciousness and high-level emotional functioning. Bluntly put, killing whales may be murder. Whaling in the Antarctic (or anywhere) is an ethical atrocity and should be stopped immediately (and permanently). Humans have done enough to the world around us. Let's evolve in our own thinking and draw the line here.

*Question: How do we know this isn't the result of consistently killing the biggest and best whales for the 20 years for scientific whaling, leaving only the less fit? An example of evolution in action? Or do the Japanese cull whales indiscriminately, killing whatever they see regardless of age, size or maturity?

**
Image: Reuters.
Also: The book Harpoon: Into the Heart of Whaling is a enjoyable read on the history of whaling.

Great Game 2.0: Antarctica

A new version of Great Game is afoot, this time centred on Antarctica and its potential resources. The region will likely be a flashpoint in the medium- to long-term future as oil gets scarce and the region becomes more accessible due to climate change. The players are already lining up and the opening moves are being made. It's every man for himself.

As a result of humanity's CO2 enhancement experiment, the climate of Antarctica is changing. Sea ice surrounding the continent is expanding, but the significance of any trend is small. The mechanisms controlling the size of the sea ice are poorly understood, but it is known that there is some link with ENSO (which itself may be changing from global warming). A new, comprehensive study shows that as a whole, the Antarctic ice sheets are losing mass. This is apparently focused on the West sheet and on the Antarctic Peninsula. The melting of the ice sheet could have serious implications for sea level rise around the world. Some caution is urged, as more studies are needed to confirm the result. Still the results seem consistent with earlier research (using a different method) noted earlier on planet doom?. There is some suggestion that these sorts of changes could result in the local extinction of Adelie penguins on the Peninsula within a decade.

Antarctica also potentially represents a vast, untapped source of resources, especially oil. As it was once part of the super-continent Gondwanaland (along with South America, Africa and Australia) and covered with extensive vegetation, many believe it may contain a so-called supergiant oil field. The Ross and Weddell Sea regions alone are estimated to contain 50 billion barrels of oil, roughly equivalent to Alaskan reserves. While this oil is difficult to obtain given Antarctica's extreme conditions, oil prices of $150-200 a barrel (later this year?) make extraction here more economically feasible. Climate change may act to make the area more accessible. The treaty prohibiting mineral resource exploitation is set to expire in 2048, but as peak oil bites this will probably fall by the wayside before then.

Indeed, like dogs marking the trees they pass, many nations are already acting in such a way as to establish (or reinforce) claims to the continent. Some of these efforts were noted in an earlier post. They have picked up pace in the ongoing austral summer. Korea is looking to establish another base. The Chinese have climbed the highest peak on the Antarctic ice sheet for the second time. Venezuela is showing some interest (but no action yet). Chile is also acting to protect its claim, with the re-establishment of bases and visits by high-level military officials.

It is Australia, already claiming some 42% of the continent, who are making the boldest moves in the game. Many of these moves are made ostensibly for scientific and environmental reasons. These are likely just cover stories. The country has established a passenger air service to the continent, the first of its kind, reducing the time it takes to reach the continent (from Hobart) to a mere five hours. The ongoing kerfuffle with Japan over their 'scientific whaling' program is another bold gambit. While essentially a policy that I personally support (let's hear it for the 'sea-hippies'), we should not be fooled about what it really means. This started when the protesters tried to serve notice that the whalers are in violation of Australian law, a claim which Japan doesn't recognize, and which is unenforcible anyway. Rudd (the Australian PM) is obviously thinking several moves ahead, attempting to establish some moral validity to back up the claims to sovereignty, looking to gain a large slice of any future pie to be had. Nations don't risk diplomatic incidents over whales.

The game has begun. It's likely to be long and arduous, and we will likely all be losers in the end as we ravage the last pristine place on Earth to continue living our unsustainable lives.

***

Image: NASA Visible Earth

Keeping tabs on Antarctica

Here is the latest news from Antarctica, the southernmost continent. For past posts on the region on planet doom?, see here.

Ozone

After an early start and a rapid decrease in ozone levels earlier in the season, the area of the ozone hole is currently below the 1997-2006 average. Recent news reports have noted that this is due to the relatively mild weather conditions, not a sign of the expected recovery. That is still a decade or two off, at the minimum. The image showing the hole is from the NASA Ozone Watch website. There are also some nice time series plots of the current year, as well as graphs showing the interannual variability. The decreased intensity of this year's hole is consistent with forecasts made back in August by the WMO.

Ice

A look at the time series found at Cryosphere Today reveals that the annual melting of the sea ice has begun. Last winter, sea ice reached its maximum annual extent, and still remains anomalously high at this time. After the record melts in the Arctic earlier this year, it will be interesting to see what happens in the south. As noted in a previous post, paleo-climate studies show that an asymmetric response to climate forcing between the hemispheres is possible. Hence, there is no reason to expect a record melt in Antartica and the lack of such says nothing about the reality of ongoing global warming and climate change.

A large iceberg was seen calving off the Pine Island glacier, part of the West Antarctica Ice Sheet. See this page at NSIDC for a recent high resolution image of the iceberg. This is apparently a natural phenomenon, occurring every 5-10 years. The iceberg is approximately 70 000 ha in size. The glacier itself is thinning and accelerating towards the sea, but the iceberg is neither a part of nor a consequence of that longer-term change.

As noted in a previous post, the trends in the behaviour of the ice in Antarctica are complex and difficult to decipher. The mass of the ice is apparently of getting less, while the area increases. Anecdotally, the ice in the region has been retreating over the past 15 years. Understanding these behaviour of the ice is crucial for a better understanding of cryosphere/climate system interactions.

Science Activities

As noted above, science and research activities are extremely important in Antarctica and the austral spring is when the activities begin in earnest. Several projects have made the news recently. Some efforts are going into the development of techniques to measure the thickness of the sea ice. Others are attempting to install seismographs or GPS units to measure movements of the ice, with the hope of better understanding the dynamics of the ice sheets and glaciers and their interaction with the land below. These projects mentioned represent only a small part of the science activity which is undertaken during the summer months. Many activities are being undertaken under the auspices of the International Polar Year.

Politics

In my last post about Antarctica, I expressed the hope that we humans could avoid the return to the 16^th century and the race to claim land to exploit it for nationalistic selfish purposes. Alas, it is not to be. We humans are going to ruin the last unspoilt place on Earth, all to 'safeguard the future'. The UK is investigating making a claim on the surrounding seabeds. China is sending its largest team in two decades this summer to reassert its presence on the continent. Chile isn't backing down from its long-standing claims. Australia actually has the largest claim, but what can they do if their claim is jumped? None of these claims is actually valid at this time because of the Antarctic Treaty, but as it becomes more apparent that we have passed peak oil. I would suspect that all bets are off. Like any addict, our insatiable 'jones' will destroy any moral or ethical qualms we may have. Let's hope there isn't any oil down there...

I find it extremely sad -- but entirely predictable -- that this is happening. We, as a species, should be pulling together now to prevent the larger disaster lurking on the horizon, wrought by the confluence of climate change, peak oil, overpopulation and the like. Instead, we continue with our neo-liberal corporatist ways, externalizing all costs to the environment, in search of the almighty dollar (soon to be euro?). Humans are in deep trouble...I suspect sooner that we think.

Addenda

Thanks to llewelly for pointing me to the Cryosphere Today website.

For a more thorough take on the societal collapse type stuff, check out the Survival Acres blog. I like the writing there, but personally try to maintain a more positive attitude...

Down south

Antarctica. The bottom of the world. On average, the coldest, driest and most elevated region the planet. Antarctica contains approximately 90% of the ice found on Earth. As a consequence, the goings-on in this extremely remote locale impact the rest of the globe. Understanding what happens here is critical to understanding the changing climate. Unfortunately, our current picture of the events on the continent is far from clear.

Most of the controversy lies in discerning what exactly is going on with the ice. Observations from the Arctic show that ice there is getting thinner and summer melting is proceeding more rapidly and to a greater extent than previously observed. Some claim that this was being offset by increasing ice in the Antarctic (e.g. here and here). Other studies suggest that the Antarctic as a whole is losing mass. The question is important because of the implications of melting ice sheets on global sea level rise.

Part of the controversy arises because the results depend on where the measurements are taken. The East Antarctic ice sheet, the world's largest, is apparently stable. However, West Antarctic and the Antarctic Peninsula have been less so. In 2002 a large portion of the Larsen B ice shelf collapsed in dramatic fashion. Recent satellite images also show that portions of West Antarctica approximately the size of California melted in January 2005 (image). Studies also show that glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula are moving more quickly into the ocean over the last 10-15 years. These trends are alarming, and suggest that sea level could rise more quickly than anticipated in IPCC AR4.

The Southern Ocean which surrounds Antarctica also plays an important role in regulating the climate. This region is also undergoing modification as well. This ocean plays a role as a carbon sink, removing CO2 from the atmosphere. Recent reports have suggested that this sink is not as efficient as it once was, potentially leading to an extra enhancement of CO2 in the future. The suspected causes of this are human activities: the ozone hole and climate change. As an offset of sorts, though, the shedding of icebergs off Antarctica could help to reduce CO2 levels in the atmosphere. The icebergs act as floating estuaries, impacting the ecology and chemistry of the surrounding ocean. Phytoplankton around the icebergs capture CO2, removing it from the ocean and allowing the ocean to absorb more CO2.

An experiment is planned near the Antarctic Peninsula in early-2009 to attempt to exploit this characteristic of plankton. The idea is to fertilize the ocean with iron to encourage plankton growth. As has been noted before, this geo-engineering project reeks of humanity's hubris, and is more likely than not to end badly through some unforeseen consequence.

The various interactions and relationships between ice, ocean and atmosphere are complicated. Antarctica also provides the opportunity for us to better understand these processes. Ice cores from the continent has pushed the paleo-climate record back to 800 000 years, the longest available. A series of underground lakes has also been discovered in the last decade or so. Careful study of these lakes, which have been undisturbed and isolated from the atmosphere, may lead to new insights into many of the biological and physical processes occurring in the region.

Antarctica is unique in the world, critical to the global climate and (relatively) unspoilt by humanity. It presents an opportunity for humans to learn more of the world around us -- a way to plan for adaptation to and/or mitigation of our accelerating climate crisis. It unique status arises in part from the outstanding Antarctic Treaty, which prohibits territorial claims and militarization of the continent. As the climate warms and the region becomes more accessible, we must avoid a repeat of the debacle we are witnessing in the Arctic, with the rush by several nations to claim the regions of the Arctic for nationalistic resource exploitation, particularly oil. We must move away from our addiction to oil. In order for mankind to have a future,this sort of selfish short-term thinking must be avoided, while embracing a sustainable, one-planet paradigm. It is the only way forward.

Antarctic Ozone Hole

It's ozone-hole season again, and this year is off with a bang...

• Antarctic ozone hole appears early – ABC News

A hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica has appeared earlier than usual in 2007, the UN weather agency says.

...

"It is still too early to give a definitive statement about the development of this year's ozone hole and the degree of ozone loss that will occur. This will, to a large extent, depend on the meteorological conditions," the Geneva-based agency says.

But it says that observations so far could "indicate that the 2007 ozone hole will be relatively small".

The WMO report is here. Their reasoning behind the forecast is that 1.) the polar vortex, while the largest ever, is relatively unstable, and 2.) Hydrochloric acid (HCl) , the chemical species that converts into the ozone-destroying catalyst chlorine oxide (ClO), is nearly depleted near the vortex.

The report suggests that the early start was brought about by the non-circular shape of the vortex

Our old friend Ozone

Ozone (O₃) is a trace component in our atmosphere. It is a largely transient substance, with molecules being both created and destroyed mainly by the light of the Sun. Its presence is beneficial in the stratosphere, where it acts to absorb short-wavelength EM radiation. Nearer the surface, the photolysis of the gases (NOX) --in among other things, automobile exhaust -- allows for the production of tropospheric ozone, which typically results in range of health issues, particularly for those with respiratory problems. It is also a greenhouse gas, to boot.

Given this, we generally try to prevent the depletion of stratospheric ozone, while trying to suppress the creation of tropospheric ozone. As a result of climate change, those things may become more difficult.

• Rising Surface Ozone Reduces Plant Growth And Adds To Global Warming – ScienceDaily

...projections of increasing ozone near the Earth's surface could lead to significant reductions in regional plant production and crop yields. Surface ozone also damages plants, affecting their ability to soak up carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and accelerating global warming.

This is a pretty good example of a secondary effect and of a positive feedback. Something unintended come back to bite, and make things worse at the same time. However, with the following item, the relation to and the impact from climate change isn't as clear at this time.

• New Clues To Ozone Depletion – ScienceDaily

Large quantities of ozone-depleting chemicals have been discovered in the Antarctic atmosphere by researchers from the University of Leeds...[finding] found high concentrations of halogens - bromine and iodine oxides -- which persist throughout the period when there is sunlight in Antarctica (August through May).

[...]

"Halogens in the lowest part of the atmosphere have important impacts on ozone depletion, the ability of the atmosphere to remove potentially harmful compounds, and aerosol formation. All these atmospheric phenomena are linked to climate change. We still have to work out what the ramifications of this discovery are. These exciting results also show how important it is to keep exploring the atmosphere - there seems to be plenty more to find out."

It is not clear to me that any real impact has been measured, only that it is a possible impact. Still, it is good to know beforehand, rather than finding out too late.